In late August Slate commentator Jacob Weisburg claimed racism would be the only reason Barak Obama might lose the election. The polls were much closer then, but as November 4th nears, some political strategists fear race may prove more decisive than anticipated.
To secure the undecided vote, Senator Obama’s campaign has been sending supporters to canvass in must-win districts such as Bristol, Pennsylvania, where many voters are still on the fence. But, according to ABC News political correspondent Matthew Dowd, it’s not the issues that will determine whether or not people decide to vote for Obama.
The way one characterizes the candidates is always important, and this election is no exception, Dowd said during a recent talk at Columbia University on the role race plays in the election. “But if Obama loses, it won’t be because he’s black. There are many other things that go into this.”
Obama appeals because of his youth, his oratory, even his “elitism,” explained the political strategist who disputes talk of the Bradley effect, named for African-American Tom Bradley, who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election after voters who said they would vote for him changed their minds once they reach their polling place.
Dowd was optimistic that if Obama maintains the lead he could win by a margin of 4 to 6 points. And in this polarized country, “if Barak Obama wins by 6 or 7 points, that’s huge,” he said, noting that a Democrat has not even carried the white vote since 1964.
Explanations for the margin of support vary – from Obama’s stand on the economy to the simple fact that people just want change. Among African-Americans, a recent survey by the Center on African-American Politics and Society (CAAPS) revealed that 92% of blacks say they will vote for Obama. But according to CAAPS director Fredrick Harris, it is wrong to assume that support comes down to race matters.
Another CAAPS survey found social identities aside from race, particularly national and class associations, may have greater importance in determining how black Americans perceive themselves in the future. According to the poll, a majority of blacks think of themselves as Americans (46%) before they think of themselves as blacks (45%). That says a lot about assuming blacks would march “lockstep” with Obama, Harris said.
Dowd went further, noting that party affiliation in this race is a particularly important factor. “Obama is not getting 90-plus percent of the African-American vote because he’s black, he’s getting those votes because there’s a ‘D’ by his name.”
Political Scientist Rodolfo de la Garza, who shared his perceptions on the Latino vote, agreed that minorities in America will choose according to class and party lines – “and there is no question they will vote Democrat.”
The question on more peoples’ minds, however, is what an Obama win will say about racism in this country.
“An Obama win would just mean that people with negative feelings toward African-Americans set them aside because of more pressing issues like partisanship or health care or the economy,” Slate’s political reporter Christopher Beam wrote on October 10.
Nebraska legislator Ernie Chambers was more pointed in his assessment: “Since racism doesn’t change, America doesn’t change,” he told National Public Radio’s John Hockenberry. “What was said 40 years ago is as true today as it was then – scruffy Jim Crow has now become polish, urbane James Crow Esquire. White people like Barak Obama, they don’t like black people.”
Fears of an Obama loss dissipate the longer he remains the front-runner. And rather than contemplate the alienation a McCain win could stir among the generation of young African-Americans mobilized by his opponent, most commentators are talking about the potential effects of the US’s first black president.
“It will significantly change over time how Americans look at race and politics in this country,” Dowd said, drawing a comparison to how John F. Kennedy’s win gradually changed perceptions about religion in the White House.
He also explained that certain conditions were necessary for a black candidate to have seen such success. “It had to be the right candidate – one who could appeal to the white community – at the right time,” said Dowd. “If Colin Powell were the African-American in this election he wouldn’t be getting 92% of the black vote.”
In the little time left before that fateful Tuesday, the media is keeping a close eye on the candidates’ conduct. An Obama win “will change how the world looks at us and how we look at ourselves,” Dowd said. And from what he has witnessed, Americans should prepare to take a long hard look in the mirror.
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