Saeed Minhas
Washington DC— Amidst unprecedented security, swearing, economic turmoil, negative campaign ads, pollsters’ claims, betting rates, media bias-n-blitz and a 22-months-long bitter election campaign over 150 million registered American voters in 50 states and District of Columbia (DC) are going to cast ballot for electing the 44th President, Senators, Congress persons, and local officials using electronic and paper ballots in three different time zones on Tuesday.
With Senator Obama and his running mate Joe Biden and Senator John McCain and Sarah Palin making whirlwind tours of the eight battleground states, Republicans are trying to regain the 435 member congress and 100 member senate from Democrats while Obama is leaving no stone unturned to make sure that he extends his lead in both houses of the congress to reasonable margin where he does not have to fear the filibuster of Republicans besides winning the presidential race.
States like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, West Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, and Colorado holds the key for both the candidates and that’s where both the candidates and their running mates are spending their last days.
Other than the two in the lime light and considered as the real contenders for the White House, Senator John McCain and Barack Obama, there are four other candidates running for the office of President namely; Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party, Bob Barr of Libertarian, Cynthia McKinney as a Green Party nominee and Ralph Nader as an Independent. Advance Polling:
According to various state officials, one-third of the registered voters have already cast their votes using the facility of “Advance Polling” or “absentee voting” in 31 states, it is still believed that a record turn out will be seen this time around.
Many states have shown record number of new registrations especially amongst the youth. As compared to 48 per cent turn out in 2004, many experts believe that the turn out this time would range anywhere between 60 to 70 per cent. Results:
Since there is no central election authority to hold the elections or collect and announce the results, the elections will be held by 50 states and DC as per their own rules and announced by its own secretary of the state. First results are expected at 6.00 pm local Washington DC time from Indiana (1.00 am Pakistan Standard Time) , which remains the eastern time zone and then the Central and Western zones will start pouring in results to their concerned state officials and to the media outlets simultaneously. Barring any anomalies and computer glitches, experts in Washington believe the entire picture would clear by 2.00 am Washington DC time (11.00 am PST). The only monitoring authority is the U.S.
Department of Justice which will send hundreds of employees to more than 65 cities and counties in approximately 20 states to monitor the elections. The department is responsible for protecting voters’ rights and preventing voter fraud. Fund-Raising:
Between all the presidential candidates they have raised an unmatched over one billion dollars during the election campaign and have spent almost the same so far. Obama is leading the campaign fund raising trail by collecting over $ 659 million, while McCain could manage $ 360 million to boost their chances in the elections.
The entire house of congress is also Both the major contenders for the President’s office spent busy last week not only making rounds of the battleground states but also lambasting each other over economy, healthcare, joblessness and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Polls: Various compilations of the polls are showing Senator Obama as having a 7.6 per cent lead over his rival John McCain—a claim which republicans are not ready to accept and question the credibility and legitimacy of the pollsters. Republicans are claiming that given the history of John McCain, a Bradley effect cannot be ruled out which means that many voters might make up their mind while casting their ballots. The trends of polls continue to change and now it is showing narrowing of gap between Obama and McCain whereas by mid October majority of the polls had shown Obama leading from seven to 15 per cent in different states. In the battleground states, the margins of these polls are showing a narrowing of the gaps between both the contenders but still Obama continues to lead in 90 per cent of the cases.
Betting/Trading: Various websites are showing that betting or trading rates for both the candidates and since it’s considered a more emotional than a scientific way of judging the candidate still it carries lots of significance for traders or race-lovers.
Since October John McCain continue to be an underdog and in the last couple of weeks his rate has come down from 22 cents to just 9.5 cents, whereas Obama from around 70 cents has jumped to 91.4 cents per dollar.
Last Rituals before Results: On the last day before the elections, Senator Barack Obama held a campaign rally in Manassas Park, Virginia, then flew to Florida and then to North Carolina . Whereas Senator John McCain spent a busier day by addressing eight campaign rallies in Florida, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Indianapolis and Nevada before heading home.
On the D-Day, Senator Obama is likely to hold a campaign rally in Indianapolis before returning to his home state to hold a night event to watch the unfolding of results from across the United States. While John McCain will be staying in his home state to watch the result and hold a rally in Prescott, Arizona.
Bellwether state: Political analysts claim Missouri as a bellwether state, which is a local phenomenon to say that the state of Missouri has voted for the winner in every U.S. Presidential election beginning in 1904 except in 1956. According to Wikipedia Missouri is also considered a bellwether of U.S. views on hot-button social issues such as stem cell research, school vouchers, and same-sex marriage. However, same status is given to Ohio, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and California as more accurate political and cultural bellwethers.
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