AND KASHMIR PAYS THE PRICE!
It’s déjà vu all over again- a newly elected Prime Minister of Pakistan immediately extends his hand of friendship and his Indian counterpart reciprocates warmly; the Pakistani Army Chief advises caution, while citing examples from the past, the ‘hawks’ in India too warn New Delhi against taking the Pakistani Prime Minister’s offer on its face value. Yet, the two leaders disregarding these admonitions decide to go ahead and carry forward the peace process with such determination, that it seems it is for real this time. And suddenly the inevitable happens- five Indian troopers are killed in what New Delhi alleges is an unprovoked attack by ‘terrorists’ backed by the Pakistan Army, the charge is promptly denied by Islamabad and guns on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC) once again start booming.
Yet, if one follows the chain of events, which has led to the present tension between India and Pakistan, it is evident that both Man Mohan Singh and Nawaz Sharif did try their best to salvage the situation. New Delhi attempted to keep a window of opportunity for Indo- Pak dialogue open by not implicating the Pakistan Army directly for this incident. On his part, Nawaz Sharif reciprocated by avoiding any direct mention of the incident, but nevertheless saying that it was imperative for both India and Pakistan to take effective steps to ensure and restore ceasefire on the Line of Control. Unfortunately, the mounting political as well as civil society pressures on the Congress led UPA Government appears to have compelled New Delhi to adopt a hard stand, albeit reluctantly.
Even though Islamabad had vehemently denied any role of its Army in the Poonch killings, Nawaz Sharif by expressing “sadness” over the “recent incidents on the Line of Control”, did try to diplomatically salvage the situation but could not succeed. It is now once again almost certain that despite Sharif’s assertion that he was looking forward to the meeting with his Indian counterpart in New York next month to “discuss steps to further build trust and consolidate this relationship,” New Delhi will not engage Islamabad- not in the near future atleast. Though both America and the UK have urged India and Pakistan to enter into a dialogue and resolve differences, it is evident that the prevailing atmosphere is not conducive for any meaningful talks and so, the dialogue for carrying the peace process forward must wait for another day.
Pakistan has just created history by its first- ever democratic transfer of power from one elected government to another and with a veteran like Nawaz Sharif at the helm of affairs, both the military and the public feel reassured. Nawaz Sharif, who inherited a troubled legacy with an economy in tatters, rightly saw brokering peace with India “the only way out” as it would enable major reductions in the defence budgets of both countries and facilitate investment in social infrastructure and for the benefit of the people. In New Delhi too, the UPA government struggling with a host of domestic problems in the form of corruption charges and accusations of being afflicted by ‘policy paralysis’, was anxiously looking forward for doing something spectacular that would not only silence its detractors but also shore- up its fading popularity ahead of the general elections next year. And what could be better than making a headway in the peace process with Pakistan?
So, when both the Prime Ministers were determined to get talking, what went wrong is the question on everyone’s mind, as there is no gainsaying that normalising relations are in the best interests of both countries. The unfortunate turn of events has thus raised some very serious suspicions that there are forces in both India and Pakistan, which do not approve of any reproachment between New Delhi and Islamabad and are hell- bent on sabotaging any attempts at normalisation of Indo-Pak relations. And unfortunately, these forces have once again succeeded- thanks to the chronic deficiency of ‘trust deficit’ that exists between the two countries and the resultant fragile nature of Indo- Pak relations.
Border skirmishes on the LoC are routine and have taken a heavy toll of not only military personnel on both sides, but has also killed and maimed numerous civilians residing in the border villages and the tragedy is that except for precious loss of human lives, neither side has gained anything out of this senseless violence on the LoC. It is even more tragic that though both India and Pakistan have officially declared a ‘cease-fire’ on the LoC, the guns which had remained silent have started booming once again, with each side accusing the other of having started the duel and claiming to have merely exercised their ‘legitimate’ right to retaliate. This medieval mindset has given local military commanders on both sides a carte blanche, as it is virtually impossible to prove who the instigator was.
We already have a strong ‘ultra- nationalist’ lobby in India which considers Kashmir as an ‘atoot ang’ (inseparable part) of India and even demands ‘taking back’ Pakistan administered Kashmir. And when the UJC Chairman and Hizbul Mujahideen supremo Syed Sallaudin ‘advises’ Nawaz Sharif “not to repeat the mistake of putting Kashmir on the back burner and try to foster friendship with New Delhi through trade, cultural exchanges and tourism,” he is merely echoing the sentiments of the radicals in Pakistan. Thus, violence on the LoC only feeds the forces that are against the very idea of India and Pakistan co-existing peacefully and is thus counterproductive for both.
While this setback will surely have an adverse effect on the progress of both countries in the long- run and peace will continue to elude the subcontinent, the immediate fall-out of this renewed acrimony is that a flicker of hope on the possibility of negotiations for resolving the Kashmir imbroglio have disappeared too. And with the international community treating the Kashmir problem as a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan, the more the two countries harden their stand, the more remote would be chances of amicably resolving Kashmir. And so, as New Delhi and Islamabad trade charges while their armies exchange fire on the LoC and continue killing each other, the biggest casualty of this animosity is once again the poor Kashmiri!