The Nepal government led by pro-India Nepali Congress has found itself in a difficult position as to Sino-Nepal relations and the everyday anti-China Tibetan protests in Kathmandu. The US Administration and New Delhi both think that Tibetans deserve the right to protest while the Nepalis fear that such regular anti-China Tibetan protests in Kathmandu will cause a substantial damage to the bilateral relations between Nepal and China. Especially, the fact that Nepal’s foreign policy has always defined Tibet as an autonomous province of China does not allow anti-China pro-independence Tibetan protests in Nepal. However, some INGOs working in Nepal have, because of their own ideological reasons, been trying to promote the pro-independence Tibetan movement. Involved in them are some Nepali human rights industrialists who want to use human rights channels to help Tibetans promote their pro-independence movement. Even white faces can be seen in Tibetans’ Kathmandu protests. Although they usually conceal their exact identity, some Nepali intelligence sources affiliated to media admit that there are also some detectives among such white faces.
As to how harsh or soft Nepal can be to Tibetan protests in Kathmandu, the Nepal government has not yet clarified its position. But it is in favor of letting protests go on in a soft manner. The analysis of the Nepal government may be that a few dozen protestors in the streets of Kathmandu will not be cause of harm to Sino-Nepal relations, harmonious for centuries.
What is interesting in this context is that among thousands of Tibetans in Nepal, only a few dozen Tibetans take part in the anti-China policy. Most of the Tibetans in Nepal have naturalized themselves as Nepalis rather than Tibetans.
Yet, Tibetans seem to have a long-term plan of continuing pro-independence movement. To respond to any arising situation, the Nepal government may use some force to arrest a few Tibetan leaders and activists and keep them under a 90-day custody.
The Nepal government must consider her geopolitical sensitivity as to her balanced relationships with India and China.