Ground Report

The Democratic race is getting tighter and tougher with each passing day. The Pundits want you to believe that Hillary has already won the nomination, the game is over, Bernie should give up etc. etc.  But that is far from truth. In fact the game has just started and the prospects for Bernie are looking brighter than ever. “Starting today, the map now shifts dramatically in our favor,” Sanders told supporters in an email just after Clinton trounced him in all five contests on March 15th and expanded her pledged delegate lead to 321. But since then Sanders’ graph has been continuously going upwards and showing positive signs.

After astounding victories in Washington, Hawaii and Alaska and a reasonably good performance in Wisconsin and Wyoming, it cannot be said with surety that Hillary already has the crown. She has some delegate advantage and that’s why New York is a decisive state for both Sanders and Clinton. Clinton had a 50 point lead over Sanders in the state which has now shrunk to less than ten percent. The entire race can be boiled down to one simple observation- the candidate who takes New York, takes the nomination.

After the NY debate yesterday, where Sanders, for a change, decided to take an offensive and aggressive stance against Clinton instead of behaving in his usual gentlemanly way, we can safely say that the race is heated up and neither of the candidates is taking the state lightly. Both Sanders and Clinton have claimed the New York state as their own. While Clinton has a sprawling $1.7 million house in Chappaqua, New York and alleged ties to the Wall Street, Sanders has been the brown-eyed Brooklyn boy, through and through.

Now, just after the March 15^th catastrophe for Sanders and celebration for Clinton, the Huffington post came up with this article. The article talks about how Sanders can go on to win every state and still lose the nomination. I would like to produce its exact words here- We’re likely to hear a lot in the coming weeks about “Bernie Momentum” but here’s the startling political reality: Sanders can win every single one of the remaining contests and still lose the nomination.

Now, it might be the situation just after March 15, but a month after that this does not seem to be the case. Now, let’s discuss why, according to Huffington post, Sanders would lose the nomination despite winning states. The article in the question mentions three scenarios – 1- The results in the second half reflect the popular mandate in the first half and Clinton wins the delegates fair and square. 2- Sanders ties with Clinton in the next set of states, still Clinton holds a delegate lead and wins the nomination. 3- Sanders outperforms expectations, reverses the poll and wins by an average of 58 percent across all remaining contests, pulling a delegate tie with Clinton. Here the role of super-delegates comes into play. Brian Normoyle, the writer of this article, argues that super-delegates would continue to support Clinton thereby breaking the tie and helping her win the nomination.

Now, let us reason why Bernie’s chance of winning the nomination is not some Utopian dream but it is as real as the man himself. After Wyoming and Wisconsin, there are still sixteen more states to go, and around 2000 delegates at stake. While the political pundits have already busied themselves writing obituaries for the Sanders campaign, Sanders is proving them wrong by performing beyond expectations.

So one thing has been established. The results in the second part of the democratic contest are not in tune with what happened earlier. While the southern states heavily favored Clinton, the northern states are more inclined towards Bernie Sanders, where despite the media showering its attention on Hillary, he has been performing well in polls. Around two thousand delegates still remain and California heavily favors Sanders. Bernie Sanders has effectively reduced Clinton’s lead to 6 percent and 10 percent in Pennsylvania and New York respectively. New York is witnessing massive Bernie rallies. Yesterday Bernie Sanders drew 27,000 New Yorkers to the Washington Park rally, surpassing Obama’s record by three thousand people. In Washington, Alaska and Hawaii, Sanders practically trounced Clinton; so the demographics do not predict a delegate tie in the second part of the race. Also Bernie’s recent convention at the Vatican would help me get a substantial part of the Catholic vote share. Now the next concern is the super-delegates. Now historically it has been observed that the super-delegate vote is not binding on them. Super-delegates tend to change their vote based on the opinion of the people. If they believe that the voters are heavily leaning towards Sanders, I see no reason why it would not convince them to favor him over Clinton. It has happened in the past, and there is no reason to believe that it wouldn’t happen now. Also unions such as New York transit union have thrown their weight behind Bernie Sanders, reaffirming that Bernie is by the people and for the people. In the words of Jeff Weaver, the Bernie Sanders’ campaign manager ,”Reports of our death are greatly exaggerated”, and the results have proved his statement right. Sanders is here to stay and win!