The magnitude of presidential politics was local in the case of Iowa and New Hampshire which were early voting states. The candidates crisscrossed throughout those states as they shook hands and campaigned in coffee shops and other local gatherings to try to one-by-one win the votes of the people.
Last week with February 5 which is known as Super Tuesday on the rise which is the de facto primary of both Democrats and Republicans, the candidates engaged in a much broader battle which carries many complications. California is the most apparent state where this state has the most delegates is up for grabs on Super Tuesdays.
“As they say, a rally in California is two people watching a political commercial on TV,” according to Chris Lehane, Democratic strategist.
Victories in early states pretty much generated positive media attention which would give needed momentum. Early victories were usually an indication on who would be most likely to win the nomination.
Now, it is a transition from gaining momentum to nabbing the most delegates as the candidates are locked in mainly two-way races. In the case of Democrats, there are no primaries in which “winner take all” unlike that within the GOP. Democratic candidates must look to maximize their rewards in every Super Tuesday state.
California has 441 delegates. 241 out of the 441 are allocated based on what will happen in 53 congressional districts.
“We’d like to win California, that would obviously be our most desirable outcome,” according to Obama spokesperson, Debbie Mesloh. Mesloh adds: “But that said it’s not a winner take all state, and this is a race for delegates.”
What makes the battle for California more complicated would be the cost of campaigning in a large and diverse state.
In short, campaigning in California is very expensive.
“The expense factor is huge,” said Bruce Cain, Berkeley Political Science Professor and UC Washington Center Director. He adds: “There are multiple media markets and some of them are the most expensive media markets in the country. So you have to think very hard about how you use your resources.”
Mesloh said that San Francisco is strong for Obama because of the large population of anti-war voters, white liberals, and African-Americans. Another plus would be that it is less expensive to run ads in San Francisco than it is in Los Angeles.
But there is a danger in ignoring the rest of the state.
“There resources have to be directed primarily in Northern California, but the numbers in Southern California are so huge,” said Darry Sragow, who is a California attorney and a longtime Democratic strategist.
He adds: “If you ignore Los Angeles, it’s going to have a pretty dramatic impact on a statewide basis.”
The biggest strength with the Hillary Clinton campaign will lie with the female voters. It is expected that they will outnumber men by a wide number in turnout. The campaign’s other strength could lie within the Latino vote will possibly make up one-fourth of the Democratic votes.
Hillary also has another advantage due to her husband, former US President Bill Clinton’s strong ties to the state.
“One enormous advantage that Hillary Clinton has – the people of California know the Clintons, they know firsthand changes made in this state during those 8 years,” according to Gray Davis, former California governor, who is a Clinton supporter. He lost to Arnold Schwarzenegger during the recall election.
Davis also pointed out that Obama would have difficulty connecting with California due to being a newcomer to the scene of politics.
Over the weekend, Obama has received the endorsement of the Los Angeles Times.
“The gender gap, Latino gap, and participation level of young independents excited by Obama are what’s going to make the difference,” Cain explained. He adds: “If Obama can narrow the margin among Latinos, get a huge split among blacks, and the electorate is more than 9 or 10 percent independents, it’s going to get tight.
“If Obama were to win California, it would be a stunning upset,” Sragow explains. He adds: “If he were to get real close, that would signal that he remains fully competitive in this race. I think he’s just got to come out of here, leaving aside the delegate count issue, looking as though this is still a very competitive two-way race. If he’s within three, in the expectation game of politics, he’s won.”
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