2 days ago there was report that Syrian forces ambushed Turkish convoy in Hama and Syrian forces shelling on Turkish Observation post in Idlib resulting in death of a Turkish soldier. There are reports Turkey moving its special forces to Syrian border and Turkish jets were on aggressive patrolling. Developing situation in Syria is an opportunity for US to bring back turkey under his wings provided Russia don’t stop Assad from provoking Turkey. If Turkey Syria go to war, Turkey can ask NATO to come for help according to Article 5 of NATO constitution.
Russia and Turkey made deal in September 2018 for establishment of de-militarized zone in Syria’s Idlib Syrian forces are continually violating this agreement and Russia is siding with Syrian army. Turkish army man 12 observation posts in Idlib. It’s not first time Syrians have attacked Turkish troops. Last month there were at least 2 reported Syrian attacks on Turkish observation posts.
Although Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem has told journalists on June 18th that Syria don’t want war with Turkey but on the ground, situation is different. Neither Russia nor Syria are implementing what was agreed last year between Turkey and Russia.
On Thrusday 27th June Turkish defense ministry summoned Russian military attaché and told him that attack on Turkish observation post will be punished in strongest way
Turkey is in challenging situation. According to few estimates 4 million Syrian refugees are hosted by Turks. Most refugees are fearful of returning back to their country for fear of retribution by regime loyalists. There are reports that those who dared to return were tortured and prosecuted by Assad regime. Assad regime is not allowing people to return without clearance from Al Mukhbaraat, Syrian intelligence agency.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged in January this year that Turkey will launch military offensive in Northern Syria to create safe zone so that 4 million Syrian refugees can return.
Due to its history and a strategic culture Turkey is finding itself in dilemma. Turkey want to preserve its independence at every cost. That is why in effort to secure its interests it’s finding itself at odd with two super Powers in conflict with each other.
US is supporting and using Kurds since 2000 to implement its version of Political and security order in Middle East. Turkey has been fighting Kurdish militancy for decades. Like every independent state Turkey wants to ensure its security which is, being threatened by allies of its old ally.
Turkey’s economy has been thumped by U.S. sanctions on Iran that are driving up energy prices in Turkey. Turkey is also vary of US support to Gullen group which is operating from US and Turkey suspect Gullen behind failed military coup of 2017 . US has refused to extradite Fatha ullah Gullen to Turkey.
In past US and NATO deployed Patriot batteries to protect Turkey but last year the batteries were withdrawn on pretext that threat from Syria was over. Following protracted efforts to purchase an air defence system from the US with no success, Ankara decided in 2017 to purchase the Russian S-400.”
In response to Turkish purchase of S-400 US has suspended F 35 training to Turkish pilots and also threatened it with sanctions. US legislators are also bringing resolution in US senate to bring sanctions on Turkey of pretext of Cyprus gas exploration.
Similarly Turkey and Russia, both Power centers in Past have been at odd against each other since 12th century. In cold war Turkey was active member of anti-Soviet union NATO alliance.
From the beginning of Syrian civil war in 2011 both countries were siding with opposite forces. In 2015 Turkish fighter jets shot down Russian Fighter jet after it allegedly violated Turkish aerospace. According to few analysts it was response of Syrian regimes Air force shooting down of Turkish fighter jets in 2012 (supported by Russia). Feelings remained high after the shooting of Russian jet. In December 2016 Russian ambassador in Turkey Andrei Karlov was shot dead by a police man who said he was angry over Russian involvement in Syria.
The process of damage control between the two countries started in June 2016 with Recep Erdoğan expressing regret to Putin for the downing of the Russian fighter jet. Putin and Erdogan talked with each other on phone on 29 June and dust began to settle.
At present, although Turkey has purchased Russian S-400 Systems against wishes of its old ally US but Russian and Turkish interests collide on Syrian issue where so far Russia has shown insensitivity to justified Turkish interests.
Turkey main aim of Turkish military presence on Syrian soil is to avoid a new wave of refugees coming to Turkey, it also want to stop extremists from entering Turkey. And most of all, Ankara wants to keep the region’s Kurds at bay.
The prevailing crisis between Turkey and Russia, especially after Syrian Ambush on Turkish convoy and repeated incidents of artillery bombardment on Turkish posts may take Russia and Turkey away from each other. If crisis develop to war between Syria and Turkey, Russia will be the loser as it has al ready offended Iran in Syria and have no ally except Syria in the vicinity.
“According to Asia Times, Russia intends to stay on in Syria as the sole foreign military power along the Mediterranean coast, given its air base in Khmeimim and its invitation from Damascus to modernize a Soviet-age naval base in Tartus. But the Iranians also have an eye on the coast. They have had a partial lease of the Latakia port since October 2018. Although Iran is officially permitted to use the harbor only for economic purposes, this new reality concerns Moscow, which foresees risks to its own forces, who may be subject to incidental attacks on Iranian proxies by Israel or even the United States”(Al-Monitor)
Iranians are under pressure in Syria due to policy of limiting Iranian presence in Syria. Israeli aerial attacks on Iranian positions would have been impossible without Russian nod. Iran has realized that it is at odd with Russia on Syrian policy.
If Turkey goes to war with Syria, US will be in win-win condition. It may be able to win back Turkey by supporting it against Russian backed Syria. NATO can evoke Article 5 of its constitution for helping Turkey which will be challenged by Russia or Turkey will be weakened in war because it will be Turkish war against Syria and its ally Russia and it will be forced to abide by NATO rules in order to survive against Russia. In both cases US will benefit .
A big war is on horizon. In my view this war will not start from US attacking Iran. There are chances that this will originate from Syria and may be things will be very different from what analysts are projecting from past few decade.
By :Muhammad Bilal Iftikhar Khan ,Writer is Researcher in Current Affairs Channel