By Barry Rascovar
Oct. 6, 2014 — Is Democratic gubernatorial nominee Anthony Brown about to blow a “sure thing” in Maryland?
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Anthony Brown
On the eve of the first governor’s debate, is the lieutenant governor “pulling a Townsend” similar to Kathleen Kennedy Townsend’s implosion in the 2002 governor’s race that gift-wrapped the election for Republican underdog Bob Ehrlich?
To date, the answer is “yes.”
The Brown campaign is badly off-track.
His professional staff has hermitically sealed him in a tight cocoon, distancing him from the media and voters — except for the most loyal Democratic groups.
They have picked the wrong issues to run on. Abortion rights and gun control are settled matters in Maryland. Even Republican nominee Larry Hogan Jr. agrees on that point. It is the “pocketbook issues” that will decide this election — or as Bill Clinton’s advisers put it in the 1990s, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Big Mistake
According to Patrick Gonzales’ latest poll, the most pressing matters for voters — by far — are the economy and taxes. These are precisely the themes heavily promoted by Hogan and ignored by Brown.
That’s a huge mistake, a giant failure to understand what’s troubling Marylanders.
Brown hired national campaign specialists when he should have turned to local pros. While abortion and gun control still might be dominant issues in Kansas or Georgia, they aren’t in Maryland. It doesn’t take a genius to figure that out.
Meanwhile, Brown’s handlers have isolated him from the public at large.
Hiding Brown
While Hogan is happy to talk with reporters, Brown runs from them. He’s shielded from the media by his aides.
His handlers even hide Brown from the public in the campaign’s media messages.
And, oh, those dreadful commercials. Harsh. Negative. Hostile. Incendiary. The sky is falling if you vote for Hogan!
It’s a gigantic turn-off for voters. This is an intelligent electorate. These folks aren’t fooled by misguided campaign propaganda.
Hogan’s Message
Larry Hogan isn’t “dangerous” and he isn’t “radical.” He comes across as a likeable, engaging and gregarious fellow with a simple message — let’s get a handle on excessive government spending and then let’s see if we can lower taxes.
Republican gubernatorial nominee Larry Hogan
Compare that with the Brown campaign’s near-hysterical messages on abortion and gun laws.
During the 2002 campaign, then Lt. Gov. Townsend seemed to get in trouble every time she opened her mouth. Apparently, Brown’s handlers are worried he’d do the same thing if given a chance.
So they’ve cordoned him off from the outside world — except for appearances before adoring Democratic crowds where he delivers a stock speech or reads from a prepared text.
With Brown, there’s no sense of humanity, no sense he’s a flesh-and-blood candidate with emotions and feelings. He comes across as stiff, robotic, programmed and unable to think on his feet or engage voters in ordinary conversations.
Mystery Man
With Brown, there’s no innate connection with voters, particularly in the all-important Baltimore region.
Despite serving eight years as lieutenant governor, Brown remains a mystery man to Metro Baltimore residents. He’s the invisible candidate — never seen, never heard from and never known.
Combine that with his lack of a specific program that voters can grasp for fixing the state’s economy and averting future tax increases and you can see why Hogan is running close to Brown in the Gonzales poll. (Brown’s government efficiency proposal announced Sunday contains more empty promises: pie-in-the-sky projected savings, sweeping assumptions and few realistic numbers.)
If Brown is going to re-gain the initiative, he needs to do more than take wild, roundhouse swings at Hogan that aren’t coming close to hitting their target.
Brown needs to deliver positive reasons why he’s the best candidate for governor. So far, he’s been a silent campaigner in TV ads, letting others do the talking for him.
That’s not good enough.
Deeply Democratic
By all measures, Brown ought to win easily in November. Maryland is a deeply Democratic state.
He needs to start turning around his flagging campaign in Tuesday night’s debate — the first of three. These could prove pivotal.
But if he continues to come across as arrogant, aloof and unwilling to speak directly to ordinary voters and to the media, Anthony Brown, the overwhelming favorite, could indeed “pull a Townsend.”
He might end up handing the governor’s mansion to Hogan.
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Barry Rascovar’s blog is www.politicalmaryland.com. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com