In Michael Barone’s analysis, he explains that there have been no changes to the Democratic race at all. Democratic co-frontrunner Senator Barack Obama of Illinois still retains his marginal lead over Democratic co-frontrunner Senator Hillary Clinton of New York. It is established that the pledged delegate count still remains the same.
After the March 4 contests, Hillary Clinton has managed to slow down Barack Obama’s momentum. Still, Obama retained his marginal lead over Clinton. On the same night of March 4, Senator John McCain of Arizona got more than enough delegates to grab the Republican Party’s nomination.
This reason being is that both the Democratic and Republican Parties have different means of allocating delegates. The Democratic method is more proportional to how many votes the candidates receive. In the case of the Republican method, it is often winner take all. In the weeks prelude to March 4, former GOP hopeful Mike Huckabee suggested that the Republican Party should adopt the same method the Democrats have been using.
Regardless of the contests, Obama has a marginal lead over Clinton. However, it looks as both Democratic frontrunners are virtually tied.
While the media has reflected negatively on Clinton in the past, it has now started to reflect negatively on Obama. One example would be Obama’s close ties with political fundraiser Tony Rezko who is on trial in the federal court. While former first daughter Caroline Kennedy endorsed Obama and said he’s the modern day version of her late father, former US President John F. Kennedy, Obama does not seem to have the ability to dodge and parry the hostile questions. Most recent example was when Obama ended a press conference where reporters probed him with all sorts of hostile questions.
To add to another dent in Obama’s campaign, the 3 o’clock in the morning ad launched by Clinton’s campaign. While Obama said it was deemed a Republican tactic, it was effective nonetheless. Clinton defeated Obama in the Texas primary. However, Obama is not out of the picture yet. Obama ended up winning the Texas caucuses where in the end; he got more delegates than Clinton.
Barone in his analysis says that the most plausible and realistic path is to win most of the superdelegates. The results show that it will ultimately be in the hands of the remaining 500-600 superdelegates. However, most of them are still on the fence on who to support.
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, former Democratic hopeful, has said that there must be a nominee before the Democratic National Convention. He said that the race at the current race is hurting the Democratic Party.
Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi assured that there will be a nominee before the convention. She had urged the remaining superdelegates that they cannot afford to wait any longer and must pick a candidate that they will stand by.
The other hope for Clinton is to get the Democratic National Committee to reverse the rulings in regards to Florida and Michigan. Both states were stripped of their delegates for violating DNC rules by holding their primaries too early. There have been talks about Florida doing a re-vote by mail-in ballot. However, the main problem with that is the cost.
While the Democrats are in a difficult situation, GOP nominee John McCain looks to benefit from it. While the Democrats are in the situation, McCain has more than enough time to prepare an offensive against either Clinton or Obama.