Disintegrations of TTP or What?

Baitullah Mahsud was killed in US drone attack in SWA on 5^th august 2009. He was the single man responsible for creating Pakistan’s deadliest Terror alliance by the name of Tehrik Taliban Pakistan in 2007. After the death of Baitullah Mahsud conflicting statements are coming from TTP circles. Interestingly TTP and government of Pakistan both are busy in hiding their lies which emotions they uttered. But before coming on the main subjects lets refresh what we know about TTP

 

 

A LOOK AT TTP

Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan(TTP)

·        Name of Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan’s came forward in 1998. A Group was made in Aurak zai agency in 1998. When group even made its own Shariat Courts (The Herald [Karachi], February 1999.)

·        In Oct 2007 an alliance of Militant groups was formed in Mohmand Agency with goal to flush out criminal gangs

·        Present TTP was formed in Dec 2007 after declaration of Taliban Alliance of Mohmand.

·        A shura of 40 senior Taliban leaders established the TTP as an umbrella organization. Militant commander Baitullah Mehsud was appointed as its amir, Maulana Hafiz Gul Bahadur of North Waziristan as senior naib amir (deputy) and Maulana Faqir Muhammad of Bajaur Agency as thethird in command(Mushtaq Yusufzai, “Militants Seek End to MilitaryOperations,” The News, December 16, 2007)

·        The shura not only has representation from all of FATA’s seven tribal agencies, but also from the settled North-West Frontier province (NWFP) districts of Swat, Bannu, Tank, Lakki Marwat, Dera Ismail Khan, Kohistan, Buner and Malakand.

·        20 to 3 Militant organizations are Part of TTP

AIMS OF TTP

·         Enforce Sharia, unite against NATO forces in Afghanistan and perform

         “Defensive jihad…against the Pakistan army.”

·         React strongly if military operations are not stopped in Swat District and North Waziristan Agency.

·        Demand the abolishment of all military checkpoints in the FATA area.

·         Demand the release of Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) Imam Abdul Aziz Ghazi)

·         Refuse future peace deals with the government of Pakistan.

TTP POLITICS

1.        Hafiz Gul Bahader(descendent of Haji Faqir APPI) , Molvi Nazir Ahmed and Haqqani Network Broke away from TTP on orders of Mullah Omer who Advised them that there was no need to Target Pakistani Forces…He Ordered them to concentrate on Afghanistan.(Profile of Hafiz Gul Bahader. Jamestown.org)

2.           In 2007 Molvi Nazir and his men Started campaign to flush out Uzbeks and other out siders.

3.           These were given refuge by Baitullah Mahsud

4.           Hafiz Gul Bahader and Haqqani Group made alliance with Molvi Nazir from South against Baitullah popularly named as form the Muqami Tehrik-e-Taliban (Local Taliban Movement), or the “Waziri alliance.” (Asia Times Online, January 24, 2008).

Some Important Groups in TTP

·        Herket e Jehad e Islami

·         Harkat ul Mujahideen

·         Harkat e jihad e Islami Al Aalmi

·         Lashker e Omer

·        Jeash e Muhammad

·         Lashker e Jhungvi

·         Tehrik e Nifaz e Shariat e Muhammadi

AGENCIES AND Main GROUPS

1. North Waziristan: Molvi Gul Bahader and Haqqani Group

2. South Waziristan: Molvi Nazir, Baitullah Mahsud  dead new leader not appointed, Haji Turkistan Group headed by Turkistan Bhitani, Abdullah Mahsud Group etc

3. Tank, FR Lakki Marwat, FR Bannu: Shaheen Bhitani group allied with TTP  Baitullah , Abdullah Mahsud Group, Turkistan Group.

4. Kurram: Baitullah Mahsuds TTP under Jamsheid Mahsud aka Zulifqar Mahsud Aka Hakeem ullah Mahsud.

5. Aurak zai and Dara Adamkhel, Hangu, : Baitullah Mahsud group Under his Nephew Zulifqar Mahsud Aka Hakeem ullah Mahsud.

6. Khyber agency: Lashker e Islam, TTP Baitullah Mahsud group under his Nephew Jamsheid, Aka Zulifqar Mahsud Aka Hakeem ullah Mahsud.

7. Mohmand Agency: Harkat ul Mujahideen under Molvi Omer Khalid .He flushed out Lashker e Tayba and killed LeT leader Shah Khalid in sep last Year

8. Bajor Agency: TTP Lead by Molvi Faqir Muhammad who is ex Member of Tehrik e Nifaz e Shariat e Muhammadi (TNSM). and TNSM. Operation Sher Dil  broke the back bone of TTP Bajor and Resulted in  disputes between TTP and TNSM fighters in Bajor

9. Dir, Malakand, swat Shangla, TTP (TNSM) Fazalullah. Valley was liberated recently by Forces as result of Operation Rah e Rast

SITUATION AFTER BAITULLAH

Baitullah was the person who was binding TTP terror network together. According to Sources immediately after the death of Baitullah Mahsud in Drone Attack on 2009-08-05,

 His deputies started disputing over his succession. Qari Hussein, Hakeem Ullah and Wali Ur Rehman Mahsud were the main contenders. It was reported that Wali Ur Rehman was more acceptable to most then Hakeem ullah who was seen as ruthless and emotional killer.

Since August 5 Taliban leaders are continuously denying Baitullahs death. Although Government has not presented any evidence but the way TTP is behaving and the contradictory statements coming out of TTP circles are enough to prove Baitullahs death.

 

According to reports Faqir Muhammad Telephoned BBC Urdu and told them that Shura has chosen Hakeem ullah as new Head of TTP. His all talk was contradictory to what he said on August 19 to BBC.

 

Yester day the other contender Wali Ur Rehman gave Interview to AP . In his interview he told AP that Baitullah Mahsud has Made him In charge of TTP

 

Speaking Saturday— Rehman said Baitullah had given him full control over the network and that a new leader "would be chosen within five days."

He did not refer to the claim that Hakimullah had become the leader — an omission that will add to doubts about whether that appointment had been agreed by all the top Taliban members. It will also likely be taken as a further sign the movement and its up to 25,000 fighters remain split over the succession.

 

 

Wali Ur Rehman Claim is supported by the statement of Mufti Kafiattullah, Who is a senior Politician of JUI and belongs to troubled Area. Who  has also claimed that Taliban Shura has Elected Wali ur Rehman as a New  Amir of TTP.

 

On 20^th august, I hinted towards split in TTP which resulted in arrest of Molvi Omer in Mohmand Agency.  In my friends circle I talked and predicted that TTP will break and this break will start from Waziristan. TTP will break in two Major Parts

1)      TTP north (Sources say TTP Bajor is not happy with Waziristani Taliban. They complain that Waziristani Taliban think that they solely own TTP and what ever they say is binding on all TTP)

2)      TTP south with many power full commander fighting each other. Like Wali ur Rehman v. Hakeem ullah  etc

 

The news coming from Waziristan is predicting Nazir and Gul Bahader are on the side of Hakeem ullah. Where as under hand Bhitanies are trying to break away TTP commanders from the movement.

I think a big armed clash is in preparation in SWA.  TTP leadership in SWA is not in favor Hakeem ullah where as that out side agency is supporting him. Coming days will tell weather Hakeem ullah effectively neutralizes opposition of the TTP or TTP breaks as I have predicted.