In early February this year during a security and defense conference in Germany, Vladimir Putin accused the United States of making the world a more dangerous place by pursuing policies aimed at making it "one single master". In a tone that sounded so much like the Cold War rhetoric of the not too distant past, Mr. Putin attacked the concept of a "unipolar" world in which the United States was the sole superpower, saying: "What is a unipolar world? No matter how we beautify this term it means one single centre of power, one single centre of force and one single master."
A new cold war? Maybe yes, but not the one we might imagine. Although there is increasing divergence between Russia’s foreign and domestic policies and Western interests and norms, the new cold war is all about energy. Energy will be at the center of this tug of war between Russia, US and Europe. The answer to the question of energy security for Europe lies again with the US. A new framework of transatlantic relations needs to be developed and sustained. The renewal of purpose of the strained relations between Europe and US will have energy cooperation at its center, and not military agreements as during the Cold War.
Energy security and Russia’s newly found confidence and swagger on the international arena has the potential of bringing US and Europe closer than at any other time during the last few years. A new strategic impetus for coordination and alliance on energy issues between US and Europe can repair and reinvigorate the transatlantic relationship that has been seriously frayed by the war in Iraq.
Europe is facing these days multiple threats to its energy security. High international oil prices, persistent and elevating instability in the Middle East, a very fragmented and inefficient internal energy market and an increased dependency on a moody Russia for its energy supplies are the main elements of Europe’s energy landscape. In this context, Russia has become the leading exporter of gas to Europe and the second most important source of crude oil and hence can afford to resort to blackmailing and using oil and gas as a political weapon against Europe.
Unfortunately, Europe is rife with tension and conflicts regarding how to deal with the threats to its energy security. The continuous failure of EU and NATO dialogue can amplify European energy vulnerabilities. EU and NATO share not just about 80% of its member countries, but also a geographic and ideological European centric outlook and it would make sense to see smooth and effective collaboration between the two organizations. Alas, it is becoming increasingly hard to foster political and military cooperation between the two organizations.
Moreover, the European governments are disunited on how to deal with the dependency on Russia’s supply of energy. To the chagrin of most Eastern European and Scandinavian governments, Germany is developing closer relationship with Russia by building together a pipeline North European Gas Pipeline (NEGP), that will cross the Baltic Sea, directly connecting Russia to Germany, and will bypass the Soviet-era, land-based energy transit infrastructure that traverses several former Soviet Bloc countries, while France has decided to fall back on nuclear power as its answer.
Although many commentators and politicians argue that Europe needs to engage much more closely with Russia because its oil and gas reserves are the main supplier for European energy needs, and that plans for a ‘common economic space’ should be advanced and the EU should actively promote Russia’s accession to the WTO, I believe this is the wrong approach.
Russia unfortunately has not proved to be a reliable supplier or dependent ally. Only in the last few months Russia had many opportunities to show Europe and US how unreliable it can be and it has not failed to make the most of them. Mr. Putin while travelling in the Middle East, expressed interest in a ”gas OPEC” that could coordinate policy and prices for Europe and the United States. What arouses anxiety over the new cartel talk is the fact that Mr. Putin has already managed to get most of Russia’s energy production and distribution under the Kremlin’s control. In addition, let us not forget the Russian-Ukrainian natural gas dispute that temporarily cut supplies to Europe.
In this context, it is welcomed that both the U.S. and the EU have spoken in favor of construction of the Nabucco gas pipeline, which will originate in Turkey and feed gas through Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria as an alternative to Russian-controlled pipelines. Also under consideration is a pipeline from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, or Azerbaijan that would link up with Nabucco, providing the first direct connection between Caspian and Central Asian gas producers and European markets. Such a pipeline would bypass Russia and offer an alternative to Russian gas in Europe, helping to break up the Russian near-monopoly on energy transportation infrastructure to Europe.
The answer to the European energy security lays in the increased need for interdependence and integration between EU and US policies and strategies. Europe should look again outward to the US as the guarantee of its energy security, the same way as it did during the cold war regarding military and territory security. One of the first steps toward this direction is to engage and support US interests in the Middle East by coming up with a common goal and unified voice when dealing with flammable situations. European influence in the Middle East and Caspian Sea and Central Asia area regions needs to be expanded in a coordinated effort with the US strategic interests. Only in this way can Europe guarantee constant access to energy resources from these two areas, hence allowing Europe diversification of supply that in turn will provide market stability, competitive practices and pricing and most important, reduced over-dependence on Russian natural gas and oil. This reality gives Europe a direct interest in the stability of the Middle East and in the orderly development of resources in the major exporting states, including Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.