Ground Report

In the “The Anatomy of Revolution” Crane Brinton observes that revolutions appear to go through predictable phases. Peggy Noonan and the conservative elite at the WSJ would be well served to read his book and then recognize that Fascist regimes also rise following a prescribed pattern. Instead of bemoaning the lack of a “genius cluster” to get world out of its current crisis, the conservative elite should prepare itself to be sorely tested as they confront Fascist threats in the coming months and years – both domestically and overseas. The only group that can stop the current rise of Fascism around the world is the American conservative establishment – the center and the left are powerless because they are the adversary.

Just like Hindenburg and King Victor Emmanuel III could have stopped Hitler and Mussolini (“H&M”) if they had acted decisively and early on, the American right may eventually have to stand up to Donald Trump to save the Republic.

The similarity between the rise of Trump and H & M are striking. All three are the products of popular discontent stemming from financial crises, followed by economic malaise, moral and income inequality. All three focused on geography and nationalism, instead of class. H & M vowed to increase national pride, law and order and living standards by regaining territorial integrity. Hitler promised to restore pre-WWI sovereignty by repudiating the Versailles treaty that had impoverished the nation and stripped “nativists” of their dignity. Free trade was one of the corrosive influences that both Hitler and Mussolini attacked. Their mantra was to restore the borders and then close them to foreign intruders.

Donald Trump’s Make America Great is a page out of the Fascist playbook. He has figured out, just like Hitler and Mussolini, that the lower middle class is the group in society most challenged by globalization and technological change. By closing the borders to immigration and free trade, he is promising them a return to some fictional age when things were better because society was self-sufficient and isolated from “others”.

The media is also a key part of the Fascist play book. For Fascists to triumph it is important that the mainstream media make fun of them. By being the butt of jokes, the Fascists get free publicity. By looking funny and wearing weird clothes, they generate constant attention and this attention can be manipulated to serve their “personality” cult. Every liberal talk show host and late night pundit has fallen into the “goofy” Trump trap and given the candidate unlimited free publicity.

With that free and incessant public spotlight, Trump, Hitler and Mussolini were/are able to reach and appeal to the same disgruntled demographic segment, the lower middle class. Trump has been very careful not to embrace any elite – no Paul Ryan, John McCain, Koch Brothers, Bush Family — because he knows that elite bashing will bring him votes. He has been clever to present himself as the enemy of decadent cosmopolitanism [even though he is the poster child of decadence) in favor of rock solid middle class values of strength, stability, law & order and jingoism. He has tapped into the deep seated human emotions of belonging and sameness; he like Hitler and Mussolini is promising a ‘band of brothers’.

Eventually, every Fascist regime can get only so far through the democratic process – about 1/3 of the population. At that point, the movement will create a “well organized militia” that it can use to suppress the opposition and then democracy. Hitler had the Brown shirts; Mussolini had the Black shirts. Donald Trump currently has the Bikers for Trump. They didn’t show up in Cleveland because he had the nomination wrapped up, but they might start pushing their weight around as we get close to election day and the process (read debates) are viewed as rigged.

Recently, Trump has started down this slippery slope. He has called to violence against his opponent, characterizing his remarks as insincere. Today, Mr. Trump is quoted as saying in the New York Times that his ‘absolute’ support of any election result is weakening, “We’re going to have to see. We’re going to see what happens. We’re going to have to see.”

What is going to happen if Donald doesn’t get his way and win the election? Now that law enforcement is openly Republican – Trump has been endorsed by of The National Fraternal Order of Police and New England Police Benevolent Association — is there a chance that law enforcement will stand down if the Bikers for Trump challenge the election results. Will he incite 30,000 bikers to rampage? Just like Mussolini’s Black Shirts did in Rome? Or Hitler Brown Shirts did daily on the streets of Berlin. If he does, only the Republican elite will be able stop him, because only they will able to influence over law enforcement to uphold the law.

Unfortunately, based on history, it is doubtful that the conservative elite will have character or the courage to stand up to him. Observe his list of opportunistic supporters (Cruz, Rumsfeld, PBA, Cheney, Quayle, Meese, Ashcroft, Sununu, Buchanan, Giuliani, Christie). Perhaps there will be a moment in November when former President George W. Bush has to step forward and save the Republic – he is the only prominent Republican with the moral character and backbone to stand up to Trump.