Falling U.S. Spy Satellite Not a Clean Intersection

In the classic word problem from elementary school – an object traveling at a given speed and in a given direction and intersected by another object traveling in rival space-time – the answers are found in the intersection and in the calculations of locomotion and time and other factored resistance or propulsion.  But the wayward U.S. spy satellite, wobbling out of its prescribed orbital pattern, renders the word problem gibberish – as the intersections cannot be neatly drawn. 

The United States military has identified the threats this plummeting satellite poses and has set an expectation for urgent action.  The Pentagon has chosen this coming Thursday, February 21, for the first attempt to strike it down.  According to the U.S. government, there is a thousand pounds of toxic fuel in the bus-sized satellite; there is a wealth of top-secret technology aboard the spinning hunk of metal; and there is the mass and velocity of the falling satellite itself.  The satellite’s unpredictable rotation in the stratosphere and its earthward trajectory are wild enough, and U.S. military plans to send up a missile and blow it to pieces seem to represent more chaotic possibilities.

The modified anti-ballistic missile will be fired from a Navy ship in the Pacific Ocean.  The most opportune timeline is between February 18 and February 26.  Since the military has experience in using altered anti-ballistic missiles to shoot down smaller warheads, there is a good deal of confidence that the satellite will be destroyed in the sky.  But – assuming the missile hits the mark – what will happen to the pieces?

There is mounting concern about space debris, most of which orbits the earth at an altitude of between 550 and 625 miles – a range that is higher than where most space shuttles operate.  Space debris, also known as space junk, multiplies in a compound manner; larger pieces are continually shattered into multiple fragments through high-speed collisions with other debris.  A recent NASA report estimates more than 9,000 pieces of man-made debris orbiting the earth presently.  The chaotic lottery ball effect is one that is increasingly threatening more advanced space programs.

With regard to the doomed satellite, NASA administrator Michael Griffin told The Washington Post, “the lower we can catch this, the quicker the debris re-enters.”  His expectation is that the pieces that do not burn up in the atmosphere will come down to earth over a period of weeks.

That certainly sounds messy.

Adding to the physical conundrum of blowing the satellite apart are the political stakes that Russia and China have recently announced.  Russia is concerned that the U.S. is simply looking to test a missile defense system – and China is more vaguely affixing this crisis to their desire to ban space warfare technology.  Meanwhile, the Lockheed Martin satellite is pegged in the hundreds of millions of dollars. 

Word problems have their clean conclusions, but this one is coming out murky.