Strategic changes are like earthquakes: they slowly build and prepare for years, crack a new situation and then go resting for a few more years. But even when they are not being felt or heard, there is always something brewing, preparing a new tomorrow. Denmark is having a lot of military earthquakes, and they are managing them well, with constant adaptation and evolution of their military machine. Copenhagen is beefing up its military, and making sure its forces develop both homogeneously and adapted to the future needs.
Denmark is becoming a big geopolitical player. Nicolai Wammen, Defence minister, Generals Peter Bartram, chief of staff, and the Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organization (DALO), the top brass for the Danish military, are leaving no stone unturned to prepare Denmark’s military future. Such as double-checking every parameter in the requests for proposals the army is issuing. Copenhagen is making sure it learns from mistakes made by other armies and countries. And the best choice for new equipment could be one which is combat-proven, and for which maintenance costs are already known (in other words, which is already being used by other countries), so as to avoid armament program disasters. As one of the funding partners of the F-35 program, Denmarks knows that cost escalations have come to such a disastrous extent that many orders could be replaced with the classic F-18.
Denmark has, in recent years, increased its military role in Greenland, its colony since the 18th century, and autonomous territory since 1979 and is taking its NATO protection mandate seriously. At any rate, intervention in Greenland is low on the list of likely future interventions, but the area is a good playground for NATO-operations. With the recent rattling of Russian sabers, Denmark has tightened its ties to the Atlantic alliance. In a recent declaration to a Danish news agency, Defence minister confirmed his strategic direction: “Of course the latest developments in the east play a part and have given us a reason to have a look at areas where we could extend our co-operation”.
The next interventions Copenhagen is getting ready for will probably look like the last ones. The Danish military intervened alongside the coalition in Iraq, in 2003, with a concentration in Basra, with a 700-strong deployment, 7 of which lost their lives, in the tribute to the operation. Like the rest of the coalition, Denmark had to maintain high readiness to deploy, whenever enemy groups could be spotted. In these outgoings, the M113 armoured personnel carriers provided the fire support and cover, but lacked the mobility or stealth, as tracked vehicles are both slow and noisy. 12 years after, it is back on a battlefield it now masters.
The most recent upgrade operation they are working on is the modernization of the land forces and increase in the projection capacity, namely in the replacement or upgrade of the infantry fighting vehicle. The old M113 has served well and true, and provided protection and fire support for decades, for Danish infantrymen. But the fleet of armoured personnel carriers is no longer fit for battle. It must either be upgraded, once again (it has already endured a thorough facelift), or replaced. The question is: into what?
In a more recent intervention, Denmark has shown that its promises to increase its involvement in multinational operations weren’t just talk. Alongside the French, the Danes have supported the operation with a cargo plane, and taken command of the United Nations MINUSMA operation. A deployment of 75 man was proposed to Parliament in December 2014, to reinforce operations. From a tactical point of view, the battle will be quite similar in Mali as it was in Iraq: asymmetric. In conventional warfare, piling up power in the right places is the name of the game, which a visible and identifiable enemy makes possible. But in asymmetric warfare, the enemy is everywhere and nowhere, with a strong preference for attacking weak points, which implies necessary rapid displacements in all points of the territory. High-pace phases of operations have technical implications on field equipment and armament programs. If an aircraft cannot be immediately deployed, because its production and maintenance costs have gone so high it cannot properly be fielded or kept in shape, that is a great loss of operational readiness. Likewise, if infantry troops are called in rapid response, but the APC supposed to carry them is so old it has a strong chance of breaking down on the way, which is tactically unacceptable. And after that, reducing the enemy is not the difficult part, with that type of power advantage, it’s catching it. Which is why an F-18 may be 20 years older and less sophisticated than an F-35, but it’s sure to fly with no surprises. And also why Denmark needs to replace its armored personnel carriers quickly, with something fast, safe and reliable.
In the long-haul to being a major player of geopolitics and military deployments, Denmark will have many decisions to make. Nicolai Wammen, among other Danish political leaders, is to choose shortly what vehicle will best increase the projection power. But many more choices will have to be made, by him and by others, to ensure Denmark has more options and intervention means than other armies in the alliance.