Senior Vice President at Hawk Trade, Christopher Atkinson discusses the outlook for equity markets for Q2 2014.
After what ended up being a fantastic year for equities, the start to 2014 can best be described with one word; “Caution”.
Yes, US equity markets have set new records this year and the pace of IPOs from the technology and biotechnology sectors has continued unabated but there is a growing sense among some of the market’s more influential players that all is not well.
Social media and other e-commerce stocks have lost significant ground over the last month. Facebook, the social media giant, has lost 22% of its value over the last month while micro-blogging site, Twitter, is down 20% on the month and a particularly sobering 31% for the year thus far.
Tokyo-based investment house, Hawk Trade, says that despite the mini-rout in tech stocks, it is watching the US Federal Reserve. The firm’s senior Vice-President, Christopher Atkinson says, “The record levels being hit by the Dow, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are all happening on lower and lower volumes. This suggests to me that there are an increasing number of investors sitting on the sidelines with the retail investor, who typically arrives to the party late, simply holding off committing to valuations that are extremely expensive by anyone’s calculations.”
“The Federal Reserve is reducing stimulus at the rate of $10 billion each month and the markets are holding up. That sounds impressive but it really isn’t. The reason stocks haven’t plunged yet is because investors half expect data to emerge that shows the US economy is running out of steam and that the Fed will have to step in to save the recovery from a downward spiral by pausing if not reversing the taper. Once people realize that’s unlikely to happen, stocks could correct and do so very sharply,” he said.
So what is the Hawk Trade outlook for the second quarter of this cautious year?
“We’ve advised our clients to remain invested – there’s no need to stampede out of equities. We’ve advised them to take a little risk off the table in stocks where they’ve made good gains – particularly in the biotech and e-commerce spaces – and to convert into cash waiting for the correction that will almost certainly come by the end of the quarter,” replied Mr. Atkinson.
Hawk Trade says it expects short-term economic data to point to a stalling if not slowing recovery but it believes the Fed will stay the course on tapering unless “something cataclysmic occurs.”
About Hawk Trade:
Since our inception in 2007, Hawk Trade has focused on delivering exceptional investment performance to our clients both corporate and individual, by coupling entrepreneurial drive with deep industry expertise and robust risk management.
Hawk Trade Contact Details:
Tokyo Daiya Building No. 5, Level 8,
1-28-23 Shinkawa,
Tokyo,
Tokyo-to
Japan
Phone: +81345782731
Fax: +81368003062
Email: info@hawktrade.co
Website: http://www.hawktrade.com