Hillary Clinton Manila visit a US-ASEAN summit preview of Obama meeting

Bilateral Meeting between President Arroyo and Sec. Clinton in July 2009 Michael Gloss USIS Photo handout[/

Philippine officials, looking for a preview of what President Obama’s state department secretary Hillary Clinton, can expect to be asking for from them and ASEAN’s leaders, can be culled from her comments in Europe.

"Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged America’s European allies to mobilize the same energy and values that won the Cold War to tackle contemporary problems," This includes, "terrorism and climate change."

In Manila (November 12-13), the Secretary will hold consultations with senior Filipino officials, highlighting the U.S.-Philippines treaty alliance. Returning to Singapore, the Secretary will join President Obama for the APEC Leaders Meeting. – Ian Kelly Department Spokesman, Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC US State Department

The key issues one can expect the secretary to raise during both her Singapore and Manila visits, may well be foretold by her statements in Berlin on Monday.  Where the US State Department Secretary called on Europe to, "combat violent extremism, nuclear proliferation and climate change." Talking with Europeans Mrs. Clinton pointed out how Europe has been "Leaders in addressing the economic and social development challenges of the world."

She went on to say how. there is a need to, "Continue our work on an economic recovery." And the need to to promote democracy and human rights beyond freedom’s current frontiers, – which can be expected to be echoed in meeting in the region with a major focus on Myanmar (Burma) or in Hillary’s own words in Europe, "So that citizens everywhere are afforded the opportunity to pursue their dreams and live up to their own God-given potential,"

But in ASEAN, talk of war and extremism – while an issue – and a serious one in Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand the later two bearing the brunt of Al Qaeda backed Islamic extremist movements. In the southern region of Thailand that borders Malaysia a under reported in the west insurgency has seen thousands of deaths and tied down tens of thousands of Thailand’s armed forces in a bloody struggle that is linked to terror campaigns in Indonesia and the Philippines in extremist Ideology.

In the Southern Philippines today, a kidnapped teacher was beheaded by suspected Abu Sayyaf terrorists and in the financial district of Ortigas for the second time in two weeks – near the country’s BPO industry center bombs exploded outside the headquarters of the Philippines largest conglomerate. Even as Militants continue to hold an Irish Priest hostage.  

But ASEAN while concerned about security issues is often more focused on trade and one of its largest markets in the past was the USA and Europe. But, China has become a more favored trading partner and the regions growing population needs one area the US still leads the world in production and exports that is agriculture.  

ASEAN is a Market the US economy needs, The United States is now the world’s largest agricultural exporter. The value of agricultural exports equals nearly one-fourth of farm cash receipts, about twice the level of the overall U.S. economy, and 1 out of 3 acres are planted for export.

U.S. producers are among the lowest cost producers in the world. But competition is about more than costs. The competitiveness of our food and agricultural sector results from investments made each year by our farmers, the food industry, and our government. These investments are targeted to building a stable framework for agricultural trade, finding answers to challenges through research, and supporting wider use of the latest technology. This is an efficient system that enables the United States to deliver consistent, high quality products to demanding customers all around the world.

Agriculture is one area where the USA is still the worlds leading player and in a calamity struck region the US farmers produce is what more than regional security issues ASEAN is looking for Sec.Clinton to discuss.

In trade terms the combined populations top 500 million people. But ASEAN wants also more direct trade access. So as preceded by US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack a few weeks ago to gain more access to markets and take advantage of weaker American dollar which makes ASEAN markets more competitive for American farmers.

The U.S. export 45 percent of their wheat, 34 percent of their soybeans, 71 percent of their almonds, and more than 60 percent of their sunflower oil.

ASEAN means Business: a 500 Million ‘hungry’ consumer market

But, in the business and money savvy centered forum of Asia’s 2nd largest income earning block, and highest per capita consumer market after Japan. China may have a larger middle class, Japan may have more per capita income as well as Korea but in terms of sheer bulk – ASEAN – is what the US economy needs to bounce back from its doldrums. And Agricultural trade is a key to that sector.

Hence, Secretary Clinton, might want to look beyond security, ASEAN, is primarily a trading block of nations – that rarely ever touches on issues together as block on political issues. So while its members may raise concern over Myanmar (Burma) and its human rights records. The US needs to remember ASEAN members need Burma’s relatively inexpensive oil and natural gas.

Collectively has rarely focused on internal issues of its member states. Trade issues, yes, that is ASEAN in a nutshell, but on areas of environmental protection and regional security it has increasingly becoming political centered, Somewhat shifting away from the non-interference in each others internal political affairs on ‘people issues’, A far cry from when the grouping was more meeting place for regional strongmen of Marcos, Suharto, Mahathir, and, Singapore’s Lee as well as Thailand’s generals of the 1970’s and early 80’s.

ASEAN is largely and primarily now a circle of democracy with stable constitutional governments that while political maneuvering can be perplexing to the those in the west. It mostly keeps politics out of business and trade at large. Issues over corruption and intellectual property are slowly being resolved.

Yet, in trade terms what ASEAN, prefers the US to view it as is a alternate for a trade imbalance the US and Europe are suffering from. Something  the many of the groups economic leaders blame on the success of American investment in Chinese factories and production.  The shift was largely funded by US capital that fueled a outsourcing revolution and changed regional trade patterns for much of ASEAN in the mid 1990’s. A investment push many blame on Mrs. Clintons husbands era that promoted trade with China in the name of improving human rights. Left an imbalance that has deeply affected the globe.

Clinton era China policy created ‘Free Market-Dengism’

What created the imbalance? Something ,that haunts the global economy to this day? Manufacturing shifted in the mid 1990’s on a massive scale from Europe and the USA in the Yuppie fueled years of the consumer powered late 1980s to the 1990’s, Truth be told it was not only to be blamed on President Clinton’s term. Much of the efforts to gain more freedom and trade with China passes back to a former Ambassador to China named George Bush. The first Bush administration opened many doors for us companies to invest in China to steer it towards the US as a trading partner.  

Yet, during her husbands administration and its two terms in office in a further effort to encourage human rights and change in China. The then Clinton Administration, led the U.S. Government to create policy that encouraged American investment in China. In real world terms it created one of the largest blocks of a new middle class moving what was once the leading communist nation away from it centralized Maoist economy and it’s centralized Chinese communist roots. During the Clinton era, China inspired a jump, towards progress called free market Dengism. A thousand flowers of change inspired, by a major era of investment and profit taking wildcat trading and an era of profit inspired excess. A benefit from this came increased market regulation and tighter bank controls that in the current global economic crisis.

Most ASEAN members are relatively sound in their business fundamentals. ASEAN turned inwards and within regional trading blocks has within the region been one bright spot in the global economy – Islands of relative calm in the ocean of global economic turmoil.

ASEAN memory: Clinton = Sorros = 90’s Asian financial crisis But, in ASEAN the Clinton era’s free swinging money markets took its toll. The ministers and trade advisors and bankers she will be addressing remember all to well how a major Obama and Democratic party supporter, by the name of George Soros led a investment speculative wave of money trading. He took on Thailand Baht, Malaysia’s Ringgit, the Philippine Peso and plunged them nearly single-handily,

The regional economy went into it’s worst economic plunge since the end of World War II. A war of branding between the USA then seen as a villain, "Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad of Malaysia a menace to his own country and a loose cannon who should not be taken seriously." – was the Sorros reply to the anger and angst from the region. "Mr. Soros in the eyes of the region is a capital pirate," was accusation hurled in 1996 by Malaysia’s leadership,

Dr. Mahathir is of the founding leaders of ASEAN. Mr. Mahathir felt at the time that, "Sorros and other speculators were responsible for Southeast Asia’s early 1990’s currency and financial turmoil." in essence, one of the leading backers of Mrs. Clinton’s party, and the Obama administration was ASEAN public enemy #1, "The blistering attacks by Mr. Soros and Mr. Mahathir even led to famous effort in the World Bank where Dr. Mahathir called for an end to "currency trading and it should be made illegal… I know I am taking a big risk to suggest it, but I am saying that currency trading is unnecessary, unproductive and immoral," Mr. Mahathir said. "It should be stopped. It should be made illegal. We don’t need currency trading. We need to buy money only when we want to finance real trade." – A 1996 statement that still echo’s today in the region. 

But, even as Soros became to much of ASEAN’s a villain, the events of 2001 and the later war on terrorism, brought out a new twist in international relations and proved that one thing constant in international affairs and life and that is "Change".

ASEAN – SORROS Feud ended in ‘Common ground for peace"

Dr Mahathir and George Soros met, the two were both in different roles – as a former leader of Malaysia but still its much respected elder statesman, on the other hand, the wildcat speculator met for peace. between themselves and the world. Soros and Mahathir met, shook hands in public and worked towards a new chapter that as reported ended a long feud.

"What was once a open messy battle between "moron and menace" was ended in 2006 "They are now declared friends, and even found a common ground to take their ties a step further… for global peace" 

The common foe for Dr. Mahathir and Soros, was George Bush and the war on terror that both men felt was plunging the world dangerously towards division and creating more problems than it was solving.

Mind you, Malaysia was directly affected by Al Qaeda – its Military found to have sympathetic members – some of whom even helped some of the 9-11 hijacker Mohamad Atta and others. But, the extremists in the military in Malaysia are a minority. 

The leadership of Al Qaeda in Asia has had Malaysians considered to be at the forefront whenever regional security issues were raised. The Al Qaeda link in South East Asia is Hambali, a Malaysian in Al Qaeda’s inner circle now in US custody he had been arrested in Thailand. JI or Jemaah Islamiah the regional terror group franchise has deep Malaysian roots. 

Malaysia’s Sipadan Island kidnapping, was hit by the more violent regional terrorist group the Abu Sayyaf well before 9-11 and Mr. Bush took office. All of this something Dr. Mahathir fought strongly against while he was Prime Minister in a mix of counter terrorism and counter insurgency as well as education and training to combat extremist ideology from hijacking what is one of the most affluent Islamic countries in the region.  

He used Malaysia’s ISA or Internal Security Act, which has covered much of its own battles with Jemaah Islamiah and Al Qaeda members in Malaysia – but also the cyber side of Al Qaeda’s tech support base – often traced back to the region.

Mahathir as with most of ASEAN was worried he provided regional support to combat this funding a Malaysian based counter terrorism studies center. He brought in Islamic scholars to show where and how clearly to combat the extremists. So, far it has worked better than others in the  region. His leadership at the early part of the fight versus terrorism proved to be both effective and clear. No other major extremist attack has hit Malaysia since the Sipadan kidnappings. Something none of Malaysia’s nieghbors except for Singapore have been able to match.

He, though retired, has repeatedly spoken out versus extremism and even made peace with Soros to try and end the long feud and find other ways to make peace between what he warned was a growing clash of civilizations. Mahathir’s example is followed by many in ASEAN while not all share his political views he is good study to see what is ASEAN today from the viewpoint of it’s founders.

Soros for his part funded groups like the open society movement, which according to its website, " Is the founder and chairman of a network of foundations that promote, among other things, the creation of open, democratic societies based upon the rule of law, market economies, transparent and accountable governance, freedom of the press, and respect for human rights." 

Soros, Philanthropic work and his foundation funds much of Democrats online media effort and he has been a major supporter of both Clinton’s the former President and Hillary. Currently his efforts in the US support a number of organizations behind President Obama’s grassroots campaigns. In US conservative eye’s Soros is seen as man behind the throne in Washington – albeit- a man who has influence in a Administration he helped support and bring to power.  

Soros and the Clinton: 80’s ties lead to common ground in 2008

According to Soros, background bio on the ISO website points out that in the 1980s, "Soros financed a trip by young economists at a reform-minded think tank in China to a business university in Budapest; he also established a grant-making foundation in China to foster civil society and transparency." 

His support of US efforts during the Clinton Presidency are well recorded as well, with support Soros gave to help in Balkans where it is reported also he "Spent $50 million to help the citizens of Sarajevo endure the city’s siege during the Bosnian war, funding among other projects a water-filtration plant that allowed residents to avoid having to draw water from distribution points targeted by Serb snipers." 

Now focused on Africa, where again his website points out, "Most recently, he has provided $50 million to support the Millennium Villages initiative, which seeks to lift some of the least developed villages in Africa out of poverty." 

Global Democracy: OSI created in 1993 in 2003 declared Bush administration defeat ‘his purpose in life’  

Soros website says, "His network of philanthropic organizations dedicated to building open societies has expanded to include more than 60 countries in the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America."

Soros, is hands on and working, or as his background document says is, "Personally involved in planning and implementing many of the foundation network’s projects." with a stated goal of, "Efforts to free developmentally challenged people from life-long confinement in state institutions, to provide palliative care to the dying, to win release for prisoners held without legal grounds in penitentiaries in Nigeria, to halt the spread of tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS, to create debate societies, to promote freedom of the press, and to help resource-rich countries establish mechanisms to manage their revenues in a way that will promote economic growth and good governance rather than poverty and instability." – Foundation website

A long list of goals that also per his press releases included one last major item. "In 2003, Soros said that removing President George W. Bush from office was one of his main priorities. During the 2004 campaign, he donated significant funds to groups dedicated to defeating the president."

It is on this note he and Mahathir as well as the Clintons and Obama saw common ground. Hence, while he is not appointed member of the Obama cabinet. Mr. Soros foundation and those he supports can provide key insight into US foreign policy positions since he and the groups he supports share a number of similar positions with the current leadership in Washington D.C. Looking at the Soros foundation website can also show a preview of how many in the Obama administration think another good preview postition.