All sides including khakis weighing options
Saeed Minhas
Islamabad—-Political mess radiated from the decision of the Supreme Court of Pakistan to disqualify Sharifs of Punjab from electoral politics is pushing the country towards a possible political deadlock as the whole political façade created by Asif Zardari in the name of national reconciliation proving out to be a house of cards.
PML (Q), once considered as a dead entity after the February 2008 elections, has all of a sudden become the centre point of Pakistani politics and its not only Punjab but the entire political setup seems to hinge on the decision of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. On the one hand President Asif Zardari is trying to lure Chaudhrys’ to help him form the government in Punjab without giving them the chief ministership of the province while on the other hand Chaudhrys’ have been contacted by Nawaz Sharif through his emissary Ishaq Dar in Lahore for possible reunification of Leagues. Chaudhrys’ meanwhile are not only weighing their options but are also looking towards their links in the establishment which has pushed former President Pervaiz Musharraf into exploration talks with political stalwarts in Sindh.
As for the Punjab Assembly is considered, out of total 371-member house Chaudhrys’ hold 84 seats officially but out of these more than 38 had formed a forward bloc against Chaudhrys’ soon after the February elections and had announced to support Sharifs’. But the police-driven or power-driven Punjab politics is considered by Zardari and Taseer as good enough reason to believe that they will manage to win the forward bloc without much difficulty.
Hardly, a month back Chaudhrys’ seems to have lost control of their party because not only in Punjab but they had to face harsh criticism from a 14-member strong forward bloc in the National Assembly as well. But with the change of political scenario after the SC verdict, Chaudhrys are being given the required muscle by Asif Zardari to reassemble all their scattered members both in the province and the centre in lieu of helping him out of the current mess and upheaval created by Sharifs after their disqualification.
PML (Nawaz) holds 169 seats in the Punjab Assembly while Peoples Party have 107 seats and any future government can be formed by showing a simple majority of 186 members in the house. Therefore, 84 seats of Q league, if captured at all, can help PPP form the government in Punjab.
Regardless of Asif Zardari’s push, Chaudhrys’ still faces an uphill task within the party. On the one side Chaudhry Shujaat is being pushed by his cousin and former chief minister Punjab Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi to accept PPP’s offer provided the Peoples Party accepts the nomination of his son Moonis Elahi as chief minister in Punjab. On the other hand, a good number of estranged leaders within the party including the secretary general of the party Syed Mushahid Hussain are talking about joining hands with PML (N) and ditching the Peoples Party. Another PML stalwart and former prime minister during Musharraf’s tenure Mir Zafar Ullah Jamali from Quetta, and head of pro-establishment faction of the League, Pir of Pagaro, both are also approaching Chaudhrys’ to consider reunification to ditch their common and age-old political rival Peoples Party once for all and then head for mid term polls.
Ironically, in the recent past Peoples Party leadership was seen accusing Chaudhrys besides President Musharraf and certain ISI bigwigs for hatching conspiracy to assassinate Benazir Bhutto. Even in her own last email to a friend, Benazir Bhutto had named Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi besides others to be nominated in an FIR incase something happened to her. However, constantly swinging political situation has landed Zardari in a situation where he had no options but to join hands with what he himself called "Qatil (killer) League".
Sources within Peoples Party claims that despite internal differences, party leaders believe that to save the present political setup, Asif Zardari should dole out the top slot of the Punjab to PML (Q) to ensure that setup is not derailed.
Though the federal cabinet in its meeting on Friday endorsed the presidential decree to put Punjab under Governor rule but a number of ministers belonging to coalition parties of PPP and even some PPP ministers expressed reservations on this decision of the President. They were of the view that instead of going for the Governor rule, President should have asked the Governor to call the session in two weeks time to elect the new leader of the House. The members of the cabinet belonging to ANP and JUI considered this a suicidal step of the President.
In a related development, former president Musharraf has come out of political hibernation and has started meeting with the political stalwarts in his home province of Sindh. It is reported that certain Khaki officials were also present during these meetings, which has led to the belief that establishment is keeping a close eye on the developments and are working on their own agenda.
It is a common perception that Peoples Party does not have the majority and given the internal situation of PML (Q) it is very hard for President Asif Zardari to shore up enough support to get his desired set up in Punjab minus Sharifs. But knowing Zardari’s wish that he would like to get Punjab at any cost, establishment might lure him to use all possible means to win over the PML (Q) deserters and independents to get the desired numbers and then use the same pretext to not only malign him but push him and his entire façade out, retorted a source privy to all these developments.
Political observers believe that current political situation has sprung out as per planned by the establishment and they seem to be working on a set agenda and all they are doing now in technical terms is “reverse engineering” the whole process. It means that they have set out a plan from start till end and now they are just unfolding it to ensure that the plan works as premeditated initially.