As per the assessment of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the average rainfall deficit across the country is about 25% as on 5th August’09. In its first rainfall analysis by IMD in the mid point of 31St July of this year’s monsoon, the rainfall deficit have been found worsening with the progress of the monsoon in all the regions except some pockets in east and northeast. The major grain producing zone of Northwest is facing shortage of 40% in rainfall. This is clearly a draught like situation after 2002.
As per scientists of IMD, the chances of improving rainfall deficit over the rest of the monsoon, as a thumb rule, is less as the further the monsoon is away from midpoint, the lower are the chances of improved rainfall compared to first half of monsoon season.
According to scientists and weather researchers, an anticipated rise in sea surface temperature in eastern Pacific Ocean-a phenomenon known as El Nino- is unfavorable for rainfall in India. There has also been rise in the sea surface temperature over the equatorial Indian Ocean, just west of Indonesia that might have prevented (or may prevent further) monsoon from moving northwards.
Giving a silver lining, the IMD predicted that the monsoon activity was likely to improve over the coming week with an expected strengthening of wind flows over the Arabian Sea, resulting in increased rainfall in parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
However the damage is done. A poor monsoon has triggered a spate of suicide amongst farmers in Andhra Pradesh and Vidarbha region of Maharastra known as ‘farm suicide belt’ of India. Five farmers committed suicide in the last few days in Andhra Pradesh after their seed stocks went waste either because the seeds could not be sowed in time or because the seeds dried up in the fields.
Loss of half of the standing soybean crops in Vidarbha has resulted in 36 suicides in July and another 7 in the first week of August. The farmers in the suicide belt are in dire need of governmental help to prevent further loss of life. It is worthwhile to note more than hundred thousand farmers have committed suicide after independence due to draught in India. It seems that permanent preventive and relief machinery is still wanting even sixty- two years after India going sovereign.