With over half a million jobs lost in India alone in recent months, the World Bank predicts the global economy and global trade would both shrink this year for the first time since World War II.
While the global economy is likely to grow at least 5 percentage points below potential in 2009, world trade is on track to record its largest decline in 80 years – with the sharpest losses in East Asia.
World Bank forecasts show that global industrial production by the middle of 2009 could be as much as 15 percent lower than levels in 2008, it said in a paper for next Saturday’s meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors.
Developing countries face a financing shortfall of $270-700 billion this year, as private sector creditors shun emerging markets, and only one quarter of the most vulnerable countries have the resources to prevent a rise in poverty.
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