By Heshmat Alavi
Iran is facing a very tense situation on the eve of the twin elections on February 26 where the candidates for both Parliament and the Assembly of Experts ought to be elected. The paradox is that despite of not being a democracy, Iran desperately needs to mask its autocracy with democratic posturing. Iran has practiced sham elections in three decades of tyranny but why this year election has turned into a nightmare and is hanging as “Damocles Sword” over this autocracy, challenging its very survival?
Following the retreat from the A-bomb project, Iran has been receiving heavy blows in Syria and Yemen and potentially anticipated for a collision with the Arab World Coalition against terrorism in the region. Concurrently, Iran is devastatingly distressed with an escalating domestic crises on behalf of both the frantic people seeking their basic democratic rights and economic improvement on one hand and the factions within the system constantly at one another’s throats, dogfighting to allocate more share of power, influence and financial resourced on the other hand.
Khamenei, the Iranian regime’s Supreme leader, is desperately trying to conceal these crises on the verge of the Assembly of Experts and parliamentary sham elections by resorting to deceit policy of “democratic postures” in an autocracy. In his speech broadcasted on Iranian state TV, Khamenei said: “As before, we insist everyone, even those who don’t believe in the system and the leadership, come to the ballots, as the election belongs to the nation, and the system.” While ironically, he ordered the Guardian Council -which dominates elections procedures- to impose the Iranian law, that requires each candidate to demonstrate a “practical belief in the Islamic faith and the sacred order of the Islamic Republic of Iran”; the law that also prohibits the supporters of “illegal” political parties and groups and individuals convicted of acting against “national security”, from running for election. A 2005 Human Rights Watch report documented how the election laws prevent candidates outside the ruling elite from running for high public office.
Thus, The Guardian Council disqualified more than 6,500 candidates, about 40 percent of 12,123 registered candidates, leaving virtually no alternative candidates for people to vote for. Iran electoral system suffers from serious structural faults that undermine free and fair elections. The Guardian Council conclusively rejected the competence of Seyyed Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic Republic founder, for membership in the Assembly of Experts. Elimination of the rival faction’s candidates reflects an unbridled internal power struggle at Iran highest ranks. Such undertaking will create dangerous threats to the regime in its entirety.
To contain the situation, Iran has intensified its crackdown on any act of protest or strike within the country. Tehran has banned holding any public meeting and gathering in fear of aggravation to wide public protests similar to the 2009 uprising. Responding to a question about whether holding “public protests and meetings” would be allowed, Brig. General Hussein Ashtari, the commander of the repressive State Security Forces (police) said: “It is not allowed. “He added that the police will deal harshly with “any electoral violations.” “In the upcoming elections we must not allow the enemy and anti-revolution elements from abroad, along with their allies, disrupt the country’s calm atmosphere,” he said.
Ashtari emphasized on continuing repressive measures to arrest and crackdown on youth under the pretext of taking action against hooligans.
It is worth noting that the plans referred to by the police chief are in line with increasing crackdown policies mentioned by Greater Tehran police chief Hossein Sajedi-nia after the arrest of more than 100 youths in Tehran under the pretext of taking action against disruptors of social order. According to sources the police are holding these individuals in detention centers without the right to make phone calls, receive visits or acquiring a lawyer. Reports also indicate these individuals are under torture to provide coerced confessions. Moreover, there are many political activists and journalists remained in prisons and many of them are on hunger strike.
February 26 day of twin elections in Iran is believed to be turning point in this nation’s history. The evidence and news show that Khamenei has made his mind to curb the so called moderate factions led by Rafsanjani and Rouhani. If so, we could expect the massive popular anger transform to a disaster for Mullahs similar the 2009 uprising.
People have realize the weak position of Mullahs through deal with West on nuclear agreement in attempt to save their reign threatened under heavy western sanctions. Therefore, Iranians are anticipant for another chance to rush into the streets as they did on 2009. Expert on Iran’s affairs are in this belief that Iran after these election would turn much weaker. Although Khamenei is in desperate need to deploy the so called moderate factions to keep up the relation with the West, but he is rightfully frightened from the aftermaths of these elections. Regardless of the results, the developments would show a new prospect; ending theocracy in Iran and sweeping away the fundamentalism and terrorism in the Middle East.
Heshmat Alavi is a political activist and supporter for regime change in Iran. He writes on Iran and the Middle East.