The threat of US military action against Iran has decreased, even though Tehran seems determined to flout United Nations resolutions, a leading security think tank said on Tuesday.
There is no near-term prospect of US strikes on Iran even though Tehran is making progress with a new generation of nuclear centrifuges, said the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
December’s US National Intelligence Estimate report concluded that Tehran had shelved its nuclear weapons programme in 2003. Iran rejects Western fears that it is covertly developing nuclear weapons.
The NIE consensus finding of all 16 US spy agencies “changed the dynamics of efforts to curb Iran’s dual-use nuclear programme,” said Doctor John Chipman, the IISS director-general and chief executive.
“It had the effect of taking off the table the near-term prospect of US military action.”
Russia’s delivery of 82 tonnes of low-enriched uranium fuel “removed another form of leverage over Iran although it also underscored questions about the purpose of the Natanz enrichment plan,” he told reporters.
The UN Security Council held informal talks earlier this month on a third sanctions resolution. Proposed new measures include an outright travel ban on officials involved in Tehran’s nuclear and missile programmes and inspections of shipments to and from Iran.
In calling for vigilance, a third resolution “would provide the basis for further independent European Union action in restricting trade credits and interactions with Iranian national banks,” Chipman said.
A “deepening cutback in Western investment” would potentially add to Iran’s “economic troubles”, he added. However, “Iran shows no sign of abiding by Security Council demands to stop its current enrichment activity and indeed Tehran is moving ahead with a new generation of more efficient centrifuges,” he said.
Chipman said the report due later this month by the UN’s nuclear watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei’s should “shed more light” on that issue.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Mossad spy agency estimates Iran will develop a nuclear weapon within three years and continue to provide rockets to regional armed groups, a newspaper reported on Tuesday.
Mossad director Meir Dagan, in an intelligence assessment presented to Israel’s powerful foreign affairs and defence committee on Monday, said the Jewish state would face increased threats on all fronts, Maariv daily said.
Dagan’s estimate of Iran’s nuclear ambitions differs sharply from an assessment by the US intelligence community late last year that said Iran had mothballed its nuclear weapons programme in 2003.
That report compiled by 16 US intelligence agencies said the Islamic republic would not be able to attain a nuclear weapon until 2015. Israel has questioned those findings, claiming that although Iran may have temporarily halted its nuclear drive five years ago it has since relaunched it while pressing ahead with a public uranium enrichment programme.
Tehran has always insisted its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes. In Monday’s report, Dagan also predicted that Tehran would continue to supply more and better rockets and training to Palestinian militant groups in the Gaza Strip.
Dagan added that Iran’s allies Syria and the Lebanese Shia militia Hizbullah were also working to develop an increased rocket ability. “Syria is improving its surface-to-surface missile system and today the quantity of missiles and rockets is twice as large as two years ago,” Dagan said, according to Maariv.
Israel has long perceived Iran as its greatest threat, especially after Iran’s President Mahmud Ahmadinejad relaunched its nuclear enrichment programme and repeatedly predicted the demise of the Jewish state.