IS TERRORISM still a significant threat to Australian society? This might seem a strange question, especially when seven Melbourne men have just been convicted of terrorism-related offences. But such is the careful and slow-moving justice system in this country that offences committed several years ago have only now been through trial.
Much has happened in the intervening years to change our perception of the threat. "Home-grown" terrorism was an emerging security nightmare when Abdul Nacer Benbrika and his followers were charged. The 2005 arrests in Australia seemed part of a pattern, following the experience in Britain in which young Muslim men shocked their communities by carrying out suicide attacks on London’s transport system.
Many of the brightest analysts and security specialists had failed to anticipate the shifting nature of the threat. Where foreigners carried out the strikes on America on September 11, 2001, the London bombings marked an apparent move to something more insidious, with people born to a community or having spent most of their lives in a place turning on their own.
Home-grown terrorism was much harder to guard against. Barricades on the border became irrelevant. If al-Qaeda’s call for violence could reach out across the globe — through propaganda messages on the internet — and inspire local men to plan an attack, independent of established terrorist networks, police monitoring and interception seemed all the more difficult.
But limits to the home-grown terrorist threat have also become apparent and should prompt questions about whether Australia’s initial response was an over-reaction. Even armed with a how-to guide from the internet, building a large and reliable bomb is difficult. Investigations showed the London bombers were not, strictly speaking, "home-grown", in the sense of acting autonomously. At least two of the four bombers had travelled to Pakistan, where they were thought to have connected with al-Qaeda’s network.
For the group in Australia, no evidence was put to the trial showing international direction.
Terrorism is no longer the headline security concern it once was. Russia’s recent belligerence, the rise of China and India and America’s relative decline have, in part, fuelled fears of a regional arms race — a prospect Kevin Rudd put on the agenda last week with a call to enhance the navy.
As understanding of the terrorist danger has improved, it is clear Australia’s experience has been on a much smaller scale than that in Britain. Tens of thousands of Britons of South Asian descent travel back to Pakistan, Bangladesh and India each year to visit family or attend school. Only a tiny number are thought to harbour radical views, yet enough to cause security agencies to fear they might link with violent extremists. Australia’s Muslim community has not been shown to be as vulnerable to extremist exploitation.