Sub:- Helpless Syrians may see more bloodshed and sufferings
In September end only naiveties were saying that Putin (portrayed as man of peace) has carried out a diplomatic coup on USA by getting UN Resolution (of September, 27 regarding chemical weapons) adopted, which averted imminent limited military strike on Syria by USA & Allies in the wake of August, 21 chemical attack on Syrians in which ~ 1450 civilians were killed. But perspicacious observers at that time also said and knew better.
USA deferred military strike for the simple reason that USA did not want Russia to gain diplomatic advantage through chemical weapons surrender offer of Syria to UN regime (which was hailed by entire gullible world as desirable peaceful solution).
Moreover USA saw great strategic advantage (through this September, 27 UN resolution) that now USA & Allies have already entered Syria physically and with all chemical weapons of Syria practically in the knowledge and some control of UN. Now proverbial US camel has entered the tent of Syria through this UN resolution and will come out only when Assad is removed and transition government is installed for ensuring elections in Syria.
Russia committed this mistake due to simple fact that Putin and his team first failed to give any solution to humanitarian catastrophic situation in Syria and then failed to understand the implication of Obama’s claim of ‘US-Exceptionalism’. This was a strategic statement of Obama at UN in view of gory civil war in Syria [in which in a country of only ~ 23 millions hundreds of thousand have been killed, many more have been injured and maimed and ~ 7 million have been displaced (including ~ 2 million in refugee camps of neighboring countries)] where USA in pursuit of this Exceptionalism will never allow Assad to remain in power who presided over such humanitarian catastrophe (by minority Shia community against majority Sunni community and which will make this transition of Govt ethically much simpler).
But now it is too late for Russia to realize its mistake as is evident from the statement of its Foreign Minister Lavrov that –“[The main obstacle to this endeavor (Geneva II) is still the inability of our partners (USA) to force the Syrian opposition, whom they are supporting, to come to Geneva and sit down at the negotiating table with the government in order to find ways out of this crisis by general consent]”
This frustration of Russia should be seen in the face of Statement of US Foreign Secretary Kerry that – “[We believe that President Assad has lost the legitimacy necessary to be a cohesive force that could bring people together. There has to be a transition government in Syria to permit the possibility of peace]”
Russia should have known at UN that USA knew that Rebels would never negotiate with Assad & his regime (who presided over this humanitarian catastrophe). Now the Syrian National Council, a major opposition group has already announced that it would not participate in the talks. Moreover in order to please Russia, if USA & Allies ditch present Rebels and try to cobble-up some rag tag of new Rebels to come on negotiating table with Assad & his regime then USA & Allies know that extremists like Al-Qaeda etc will completely take over the civil war in Syria and that will simply not be acceptable to USA & Allies.
Therefore now Russia should be reconciled to the fact that Russia, China (both who used / threatened to use Veto on earlier UNSC Syria Resolutions), Iran and their Allies have lost in Syria. The days of Assad & his regime in power and even of their life (through International Criminal Court trials) are now numbered. Now messy and gory election under transition Govt in Syria is also only a matter of time.
Now Russia has only one alternative left that is to wait for isolationist (hit & run) policy of USA to fall apart (in NAME countries where Arab – Spring has turned gory and where USA will not succeed) because of four following major deficiencies in its foreign policy.
Though other countries are prepared to share the burden of maintaining global peace by contributing [men (including martial), material (including armaments) and money] to UN, but USA wants to retain hegemony & monopoly of 5 permanent members through Veto to P-5 countries at UN and does not want voting rights in UNSC to all members as per formula based on said contribution to UN. Obviously USA does not understand that world peace can be best maintained by participation of every country of the world in this process.
USA is not thinking of converting optional protocol OP-1 of ICCPR at UN into mandatory protocol MP-1 for enforcing human rights in member countries including even through military intervention.
USA is not thinking of conducting elections in troubled countries under UN Election Commission (UNEC) under secular constitution with assistance of UN Peace Keeping Force.
USA is not thinking of launching International Political Parties (IPP) under supervision of UNEC though IPP is the best guarantee of preventing fundamentalism from spreading especially in Muslim majority countries where fundamentalism invariably gain ascendancy in democracy.