IRAQ’S largest dam is in serious danger of collapse and up to 500,000 people could die if it does, an alarming US assessment has found.
The assessment, by the US Army Corps of Engineers and other US officials, warns as many as half a million people could drown if there is a catastrophic failure of the Mosul Dam, The Washington Post reports.
US officials had concluded that Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul, could be left under almost 20 metres of water and parts of Baghdad could be under 4.5 metres, said Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub, the dam manager.
"The Mosul dam is judged to have an unacceptable annual failure probability," an Army Corps of Engineers draft report says.
The Post reported that a US project to strengthen the dam had been marred by incompetence and mismanagement.
And US and Iraqi officials have been at loggerheads over how severe the problem is. The Army Corps says a second dam downstream on the Tigris River must be built to prevent a tragedy, but Iraq officials have said it is too expensive and is unnecessary, the Post said.
In May this year, top US officials wrote to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, warning of the dangers.
"The Army Corps of Engineers determined that the dam presented unacceptable risks," US Ambassador Ryan Crocker and General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, wrote, according to the Post.
"Assuming a worst-case scenario, an instantaneous failure of Mosul Dam filled to its maximum operating level could result in a flood wave 20 meters deep at the City of Mosul, which would result in a significant loss of life and property."
The dam, built in the early 1980s, has major structural problems because it was built on top of gypsum, which dissolves when it comes into contact with water.
Millions of tonnes of material have been applied to the dam wall to shore it up since then, but US officials say the structure still represents a very significant threat.