For the next two and a half decades, the global energy demands are expected to grow and it is highly likely that the world’s energy needs would be more than 50 percent higher in 2030 than today, the International Energy Agency said.
During that time, the annual average growth rate for the global energy demands is 1.6 percent, says Dr. Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA, in a paper entitled World Energy Prospects and Challenges.
"More than two-thirds of the growth in world energy will come from the developing countries, where economic and population growth are highest," Birol explained.
The IEA economist added that fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy supplies, projecting more than 80 percent increase in primary energy demand in the coming years. The transport sector will consume about two-thirds of the world’s oil supplies.
Global oil demands will reach 92 million barrels per day in 2010, and 115 mb/day in 2030. Birol said, noting that global oil reserves today will exceed the projected production between now and the year 2030. However, the expected costs of energy explorations are estimated to reach US$17 trillion over the 2004-2030 period, with half of these in developing countries, the IEA official said.
Likewise, energy demands in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are likely to grow due to population boom, averaging 2.9 percent per year over the 2003-2030 period. Saudi Arabia and Iran will account 45 percent of the energy demands in MENA in 2030.
"Most MENA countries will rely almost exclusively on oil and natural gas to meet the energy needs," the IEA noted. Saudi Arabia will remain the largest supplier of oil owing to its vast reserves, with output rising to 10.4 mb/day in 2004 to 11.9 mb/d in 2010.
Although it did not mention as to whether the impending passage of a new petroleum law that would allow Western oil companies to maximize extraction of the vast unexplored oil deposits in Iraq, it is rated to have the fastest growth of production, after Saudi Arabia. But the IEA is optimistic that increased foreign investments will boost oil production growth in the MENA region from 35 percent in 2004 to 44 percent in 2030. In real figures, MENA’s combined oil and gas export revenues will rise from US$310 billion in 2004 to US$320 billion in 2010, and US$635 billion in 2030, the economist said.
Source: IEA
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