Early in 2013, things seemed to finally be looking up – the first elections since the 2009 coup had been scheduled for July 24th, Rajoelina and his former rival Marc Ravolomanana had agreed not to run, and the African Union and international community had arranged to finance the election and recognize its winner. The elections promised to restore Madagascar’s place in the African political community and rejuvenate the tourism industry, breathing new life into the Island nation’s economy. But election controversy – including Rajoelina’s re-entry into the race along with Ravolomanana’s wife, has led to the withdrawal of international support and the polls’ postponement. And on the heels of controversy, Madagascar was hit by the worst locust plague in decades, threatening to decimate the agriculture and threaten the food supplies of 2/3 of the country’s inhabitants. High hopes at 2013’s beginning have turned to despair.
The election that wasn’t
Madagascar’s July 24th election promised to restore constitutional order after more than four years of political crisis that scared off investors and devastated the vital tourism sector. The vote had been organized by the Southern African Community for Development, as long as the African Union, and would be financed in part by neighboring South Africa. Part of the arrangement was the agreement by Rajoelina and Ravolomanana, rivals in the 2009 political crisis, that both would abstain from running.
In February, however, the stakes were changed. While Marc Ravolomanana stood by his abstention, his wife Lalao Ravolomanana announced she would run for the presidency as the candidate for her husband’s political party. Rajoelina instantly called foul play, branding her candidacy was a violation of his agreement and submitting his own in response. They were joined by exiled former president Didier Ratsiraka, as well as 40 other candidates – requiring an expensive ballot and ensuring a highly complicated election.
In a devastating surprise, the Electoral Court established with the sole purpose of conducting fair, smooth elections, approved the candidacy of all three. Despite condemnation from the international community, the court ruled that they, and practically any candidate who applied, had the right to run for President of the country. The decision validated the controversial candidacies, which had previously been illegal, and shocked the African Union. In a June 26 meeting, the International Contact group on Madagascar, which had played a major role in arranging the elections, denounced the court, saying it “regretted the political decision of the court to validate the illegal candidacies of Ravolomanana, Rajoelina and Ratsiraka” and that “the unfortunate decision of the court has compromised its credibility”. They recommended the complete restructuring of the court, and acknowledged the necessity of postponing the July 24th election date.
Without international support, it’s unclear if the election will occur even on its postponed date in August. With the African Union’s denunciation, South Africa withdrew its financial and ballot-printing support, greatly damaging the chances for a smoothly conducted election. With 43 candidates, the field is a hotbed for confusion and controversy. And the very real possibility exists that Rajoelina or Ravolomanana will win, destroying the election’s original purpose, and all but guaranteeing that Madagascar’s government will remain a political pariah.
From Bad to Worse
The troubles of the Malagasy people and the fragile, controversial government have been augmented by a natural disaster that threatens the already-suffering economy as well as the livelihood of 13 of the country’s 20 million citizens. A locust infestation, the worst in decades, is currently worsening, and with farming as one of Madagascar’s main sources of food and employment has the potential to become a true crisis. Locusts, says the Food and Agriculture Organization, can destroy from 40 to 100 percent of a maize harvest, one of Madagascar’s most important crops. For a population with 77 percent living under the poverty line, such a loss would be truly devastating.
The FAO says that stopping the plague and preventing such a crisis will require 22 million dollars – funds the Malagasy government does not possess. With the political instability and accompanying possibility for corruption, however, international donors are hesitant to provide aid. The World Bank recently approved a 10 million dollar donation to the effort, but with the current disarray of the government, it’s unclear how any initiative will be conducted. Without progress on the political front, the locust plague could easily reach runaway proportions.
With the poverty, political corruption, and threat of famine, the future for Madagascar appears ominous indeed. The presidential election, now set for August 23rd, may now be the only chance to restore stability – without a government, progress for the Malagasy will remain a dream.