Mujuru can still spring a surprise

It looks like it’s all in the bag for President Robert Mugabe. He will be nominated the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front candidate for next year’s harmonised elections which will combine presidential, parliamentary and local government elections at the party’s extraordinary congress in Harare from December 11-15.
 
Secretary for administration Didymus Mutasa says the main agenda of the special congress will be the ratification of Mugabe as the party’s presidential candidate. Nothing, therefore, should stop Mugabe’s nomination because section 2.7 of the party constitution says: “The extraordinary session of congress shall deliberate only on those matters for which it has been specifically convened.”
 
But war veterans, who are spearheading Mugabe’s re-election campaign and have won the ruling party the last three elections, feel that Mugabe’s main contender, Solomon Mujuru, husband of vice-President Joyce, can still spring a surprise at the special congress. They say all he needs is one delegate to call for the dissolution of the central committee. If this gets the support of six out the 10 party provinces, this could force Mugabe to step down and call for fresh elections.
 
The former army commander is banking on Bulawayo province to make this move because normally it is given the first chance to move motions as it is alphabetically number one. Bulawayo is the only party province out of 10 still to complete its provincial elections. It was supposed to elect a provincial executive on April 29 but the elections were postponed after it emerged that there were two factions. One is loyal to local politburo members who include Dumiso Dabengwa, party chairman John Nkomo and Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu. The other is loyal to war veterans led by Jabulani Sibanda who was suspended from the party three years ago but is currently spearheading Mugabe’s re-election campaign.
 
War veterans have won all provincial elections since the death of Zimbabwe African People’s Union leader Joshua Nkomo but their executives have always been dissolved by local politburo members. Right now these leaders say they have elected district executives and are just waiting for the go-ahead to elect the provincial executive. But war veterans say the so-called elections were a sham and have threatened to disrupt the party congress if the party leadership accepts the election results.
 
Bulawayo was represented by two delegations at the 2004 congress, the elected one led by war veterans and other loyal to politburo members.
 
If Bulawayo moves the motion, it is likely to be supported by the other two Matabeleland provinces, Matabeleland North and Matabeleland South, which have always been against Mugabe. It will also be supported by Mujuru’s home province, Mashonaland East, his wife’s base Mashonaland Central and Harare province which is led by Mines Minister Amos Midzi.
 
On paper therefore Mujuru can score an easy victory. But that is easier said than done. Mugabe is an astute politician, who always plays his cards right and has so far survived against all odds. Only three years ago, he ditched his favourite Emmerson Mnangagwa for Joyce Mujuru by catapulting her to vice-president against popular party support.
 
Mnangagwa’s sin was that he had mobilised provinces to support him for the vice-President’s post behind Mugabe’s back. Though he had six provinces behind him only two weeks prior to the congress Mujuru won at the congress.
 
The same is likely to happen to Mujuru. He has at least six provinces behind him right now, but in ZANU, they say “tamba wakachenjera” (play the game with tact). Most of Mugabe’s lieutenants want him out because they are afraid the country will not get out of the current political and economic crisis until he is gone. But at the same time, no one wants to be on Mugabe’s wrong side because they know that would be the end of their political and business careers.
 
The old man is vindictive and Mujuru knows that quite well Mugabe now wants to shut Mujuru out because he believes the former army commander has betrayed him. He has teamed up with Mugabe’s arch-enemies, the British and the Americans in what Mugabe believes is a deliberate plan for regime change from within.
 
Mujuru is now one of the wealthiest businessmen in the country. Surprisingly, though he is listed as one of the persons that the Americans and British should not do business with, some of his businesses are being bankrolled by the British and Americans. Two quickly come to mind: River Ranch and Marange diamond mines.
 
River Ranch in which Mujuru owns about 20 percent, is being bankrolled by the African Management Services Company (AMSCO), a company jointly owned by the International Finance Corporation an arm of the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme. Saudi Arabian billionaire Abdel Abdul Rahman Al Aujan is the majority shareholder.
 
River Ranch Limited forcibly took over the mine from Bubye Minerals in 2004. AMSCO has, however, continued to assist the company despite protests from Bubye Minerals directors Michael and Adele Farquhar. They have written several letters to AMSCO itself as well as to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former US ambassador to Zimbabwe Christopher Dell asking why the US is supporting a company whose director is listed as this flouts the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act but they have not received any response. This has convinced the husband and wife team that this must be part of the US government’s regime change.
 
Mujuru was also an active partner in African Consolidated Resources (ACR) which had won the concession to mine diamonds in Marange. Though owned by white Zimbabweans, ACR is listed on the Alternative Investment Market in London. Sources say, before it lost its concession, Mugabe summoned ACR chief executive officer Andrew Cranswick, to explain Mujuru’s role in ACR. When he  told Mugabe that Mujuru had no stake in the company Mugabe is reported to have told Cranswick that he could not work with dishonest people. And the concession was cancelled.
 
Mugabe dropped Mujuru from his succession list after that. But Mujuru has not given up. He has told confidantes that he will stop at nothing to get Mugabe out. “ I have fought many battles and I have never lost one. I will not lose this one,” he is reported to have told business associates.
 
Observers though, say Mujujru is not fighting to become president. He wants a person of his choice in the top post to protect his business interests, which people say now run into billions.
 
But Mujuru knows how brutal Mugabe can be. He has to play his cards right. He is not likely to challenge Mugabe unless he is absolutely sure he is going to win. His wife has already publicly stated that she is not eyeing the top post, but no one buys that. Rather than face embarrassment, observers say, Mujuru might go for the second option, that of waiting for the 2009 congress which is only two years away.
 
Under this option Mujuru will not challenge Mugabe at the congress but rather wait and mobilise support for 2009 because Mugabe is not likely to be around then. With his advanced age he will either be dead or will have handed over to his successor as provided under the new constitution which was agreed by both the ruling and opposition Movement for Democratic Change.
 
The political climate favours the second option. Mujuru can wait because right now there is no threat from the opposition. The Movement for Democratic Change is disintegrating. It split into two two years ago and divided its constituency. Now there are fights within the stronger of the two factions, the one led by founder, Morgan Tsvangirai. Though seemingly intact, the Arthur Mutambara faction is no threat. In fact, it appears to be working closely with the ruling party than with its sister organisation.
 
ZANU-PF now has an upper hand. Those disgruntled with Mugabe’s leadership can bury their differences and wait for just another year. It should therefore not be surprising to see Mugabe being elected unanimously at the special congress. He can even be nominated by supporters of Mujuru to give the impression that the party is still united.
 
This will be a tremendous boost for the octogenarian who will just have returned from the African Caribbean Pacific countries- European Union summit in Lisbon, Portugal. Mugabe is going to the summit to score points. He will probably announce amendments to the notorious Public Order and Security Act to allow for more political freedom by the opposition as well as to the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act which regulates the operations of journalists and the media, just before the Lisbon Summit so that he can carry the trophy that he is reforming. Observers say Mugabe will want to show the summit, which has almost split the EU, that there are “African solutions to African problems”.
 
A victory for Mugabe is a victory for Mnangagwa. Mugabe is being backed by the same war veterans that tried to prop Mnangagwa in 2004. This time, both have Mugabe’s blessing and Mnangagwa is rated top favourite to succeed Mugabe should he step down. But analysts will tell you that anything can happen. Mugabe doesn’t want to be second-guessed.