When George W. Bush invaded Iraq on March 19, 2003, I was angry and frustrated. From the beginning, I had a gut instinct that the war would not be in the national interest. Eleven years later that intuition has hardened into fact.
So naturally, I was an enthusiastic supporter of Barack Obama for President in 2008. He was one of the few sitting Democratic Senators who had been consistently against the War and he promised to get us out.
But now six years after, I realize that my emotions got in the way. There is no way to withdraw from Iraq without giving up the geopolitical gains won with blood and treasure.
It is a sad historical truth that once a nation engages militarily and occupies another sovereign territory, the invader/liberator must stay for at least three generation to effect ‘nation building’ and create a reliable ally. When Harry Truman entered the Korean War in 1950, George F. Kennan, perhaps the most talented American strategic thinker of the last century, told President Truman that he was making a multi-generational commitment of US troops. Sixty-four years later, there are 28,500 American service men and women in South Korea.
Looking around Europe and Asia, the same geopolitical imperative is discernible. To hold the strategic gains of World War 2 and transform enemies into allies, the United States has maintained a creditable military presence in Japan (49,500), Germany (38,500) and Italy (11,000). These troops have formed the backbone for ‘nation building’ . After more than 70 years of occupation, all of these countries are democracies with market economies and allies of the United States.
The ‘three generation’ rule can be observed in The Philippines and Panama. Both countries negotiated American troops withdraws after a presence of approximately 90 years and still remained democracies and allies. US troops withdrew from Panama on December 31, 1999 after a presence of 96 years and The Philippines in 1992 after a presence of 94 years.
My takeaway from what has and has not worked historically in terms of nation and ally building is that the United States needs to maintain a creditable military presence in both Iraq and Afghanistan for three generations. That means that the George W. Bush’s righteous war in Afghanistan and massive blunder in Iraq will be visited upon our great-grand children.
The Obama Administration needs to wake up to this very inconvenient truth. Now that America has destabilized Afghanistan and Iraq, it must stay the course and leave a creditable and effective military presence in these sovereign nations for three generations.