If the unconfirmed rumour of the Army Chief General Raheel Sharif ‘advising’ beleaguered Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to step down is true, then it is certainly a sad day for Pakistan. Last year, when he returned to power for the third time, Nawaz Sharif earned for himself a place in history by presiding over the first transition of one democratically elected government to another in Pakistan’s 65 year old history which has otherwise been plagued by military rule. This development had raised hopes amongst the people that the era of martial law had finally come to an end in Pakistan and democracy would now take root and flourish in the years to come. However, as things stand today, nearly everybody is talking of a ‘soft coup’. So, where did Nawaz Sharif go wrong? He is both an astute politician and a great survivour who literally came in from the cold. Deposed and exiled by his own Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf in 1999, Sharif made a dramatic comeback and this probably gave him a misplaced sense of invincibility.
Having been bitten once, it was but natural for Sharif to take due care in selecting his new Army Chief to prevent history from repeating itself. He finally chose Lieutenant General Raheel Sharif, even though this meant ignoring the crucial seniority factor in an extremely hierarchy conscious organisation like the Pakistan army. However, Nawaz Sharif was not unduly worried about any backlash as he had done this before without any negative fallout when he chose the relatively junior Lieutenant General Pervez Musharraf for the post of Army Chief in 1998. General Raheel Sharif carried the reputation of being a thoroughbred soldier holding moderate views with no political ambitions and this is exactly what Nawaz Sharif needed. However, Nawaz Sharif seems to have made a serious error – not of making a wrong choice of the person he selected as his Army Chief, but that of taking his namesake too much for granted.
Soon after Nawaz Sharif announced his new Army Chief, senior security analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi made a very significant observation that “Nawaz (Sharif) should know that whether it is Raheel Sharif or someone else as Army Chief, he won’t do the PM’s bidding – he will be driven by the institution first and last.” It seems that Nawaz Sharif did not take this cautionary advice seriously and convinced of his Army Chief’s complete loyalty, committed three cardinal mistakes soon after becoming PM. Firstly, without even conferring with the Army Chief, Nawaz Sharif declared that he wanted to disentangle the army from politics. There was nothing wrong with this decision, as in a democratic country that has seen army rule for more than half of its 65 years old existence, taking this step was necessary. However, in doing so, he allowed his over enthusiasm and newly acquired sense of invincibility to blur reality and overlook hard facts that he was in a country where the army still refers to politicians and bureaucrats as “those bloody civilians!” When this decision of his evoked no response from General Raheel Sharif, Nawaz Sharif in all probability misread his Army Chief’s silence as a sign that the military had finally accepted the supremacy of the legislature!
The second mistake that Nawaz Sharif made was displaying unrestrained exuberance and a tearing hurry in extending an olive branch to New Delhi. In his very first interview given to The Telegraph, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif declared that he “sees his election victory as a mandate for peace with India” and claimed that he was speaking with “genuine feeling about the need for reconciliation with Pakistan’s oldest enemy.” It is inconceivable as to how a seasoned politician like Nawaz Sharif could make peace overtures with India, which he himself called “Pakistan’s oldest enemy,” without even consulting the army. Though General Raheel Sharif did not publically express his disapproval of Nawaz Sharif’s over obsession for mending fences with New Delhi, he did send out clear signals. The situation on the Line of Control suddenly flared up with heavy exchanges of fire between the Indian and Pakistani armies. Though the Pakistan army claimed that it was the Indian side which was responsible for the unprovoked firing and it was just retaliating, Nawaz Sharif should have taken the hint. However, it appears that sentiments may have got the better of Nawaz Sharif, who during his last term as Prime Minister had made very good progress towards the normalisation of Indo-Pak relations by striking the right chord with his Indian counterpart Atal Bihari Vajpayee and could have achieved wonders, had it not been for his Army Chief Pervez Musharraf’s Kargil misadventure.
The third mistake of Nawaz Sharif was to publically declare his government’s decision to negotiate with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), once again without taking the army into confidence. Though General Raheel Sharif displayed no resentment publically, the fact that the army despite being a major stake holder chose not to participate in these negotiations points to the fact that it was not at all enthused or in favour of this decision. These talks appear to be the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back and this assessment is based on the way things unfolded prior to the military offensive against the TTP. This was the first occasion in which General Raheel Sharif flexed his muscles to demonstrate who actually called the shots in Pakistan and declared war against the TTP without awaiting the government’s approval. It is pertinent to note that the official announcement of this military operation was not made by the government, but by the army’s Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), even before the government could officially call off the talks! Yet, Nawaz Sharif failed to see the writing on the wall!
While the army may not have expressed it openly, but there is no doubt that it did not like the idea of playing second fiddle in Pakistan and took very serious umbrage to what it perceived as an attempt by Nawaz Sharif to curtail the army’s authority and erode its image. The army was clearly unhappy with his decision of putting its ex Army Chief General Musharraf on trial and the very thought of one of its retired General being dragged to court by a civilian government must have galled the army. By tradition, the army has always been treated as a ‘holy cow’ in Pakistan and thus enjoys immunity from persecution in civil courts. However, with Nawaz Sharif taking Musharraf to the court, precedence has been set and this would have naturally irked the army! The army also demonstrated the fierce intensity with which it protects its image by forcing the Nawaz Sharif Government to take Geo TV off the air simply because this channel dared to broadcast allegations regarding involvement of the ISI chief in the murderous attack on its TV anchor Hamid Mir! These are some signs Nawaz Sharif should have taken a serious note of, but unfortunately, he didn’t.
Nawaz Sharif’s attempt to broker peace with India has also upset the army. In counting the immense benefits that would accrue out of normalisation of Indo Pak ties, Nawaz Sharif lost sight of the harsh fact that peace with India is not in his army’s interests. When invitations were sent by New Delhi to the Heads of all SAARC nations for attending the swearing-in ceremony of Narendra Modi, it took Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s office two days to confirm his attendance. Before confirming this, the Prime Minister’s brother Shahbaz Sharif met General Raheel Sharif, ostensibly to “inform” him regarding Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s decision to visit India. However, rumours were rife that the real aim of the meeting was to seek the Army Chief’s approval. Curiously, on the day Nawaz Sharif was to decide on New Delhi’s invitation, there was a suicide attack on the Indian consulate at Herat. First, President Karzai and subsequently the US State Department confirmed that this attack was the handiwork of the Pakistan army backed Lashkar-e-Toiba. So, could the timing of the Herat attack be a mere coincidence? Or was this a deliberate attempt by the army to create tension between New Delhi and Islamabad and thus scuttle Nawaz Sharif’s Delhi visit?
It is surprising that despite his tremendous experience and deep insight into the functioning of the army and outlook of its Generals, Nawaz Sharif failed to read the changing signs of time. His three mistakes of trying to deprive the army of its say the running the nation, trying to make peace with India and taking unilateral decisions have cost him dear. Unlike General Musharraf, Pakistan Army Chiefs today don’t believe in overthrowing democratically elected governments and then running the country. They prefer to stay behind the scene ensuring a tight control over Pakistan’s foreign policy, especially towards ‘hostile’ countries like India and Afghanistan. Nawaz Sharif dared to assert the writ of the legislature by sidelining the powerful army and so he has to pay the price for his folly. The army may appear to be supporting his government, but while this support is only symbolic, its discreet backing to the Imran Khan-Tahirul Qadri duo is for real. Nawaz Sharif has only two options- either fall in line with the army or pack up his bags and go!