Following the April uprising in 2006, Nepal has at least found a mandate for the overall transformation of the Nepalis’ lives. No doubt, people’s overall transformation implies qualitative changes in political, socio-economic and cultural spheres. Although the paper work done by the ever-divided Seven Party Alliance cannot be termed as the tremendous changes from grassroot perspectives, it can at least serve to create pressures to implement commitments in the future.
Some pro-establishment intellectuals (inclined to puritanical evolutionism) have considered paper declarations as tremendous changes. But the Nepalis want to find certain things before they can accept the declarations as truth. For example, the growing impunity has been completely ignored with the dramatization of the Rayamajhi Probe Commission and the immunization of crimes against humanity. With this immunization of the existing impunity, more crimes have been institutionalized in Nepal. Perhaps crime control mechanisms themselves must have been facing difficulty defining and classifying crimes since even purely criminal activities such as robberies, rapes, civilian murders and abduction have also been labeled as political exercises.
It could be of higher interest to non-Nepali legal and human rights researchers that Nepal’s laws are mainly implemented at ordinary people’s levels while those who held or hold political and socio-economic power are gifted with impunity. This irony of the rule of law has not but helped to further criminalize the nation’s politics. It has equally contributed to the justification for insurgency that usually develops into armed conflicts following the brutal suppression of peaceful voices.
There may be difficulties in reducing the level of impunity since it is something deep-rooted. One obvious reason for not being able to reduce the level of impunity is the fact that deep-rooted feudal mechanisms remain as the chief barriers to the implementation of laws and newer declarations. But this reason must not be the excuse for promoting impunity.
The promotion of impunity, in fact, means the promotion of crimes. The rise of crimes further nurtures the criminal mentality of people. Even suffering masses, in the name of resisting crimes, will be part of the whole criminalization process. This is where intelligence experts, legal and human rights communicators have to exercise more seriously.
The constituent assembly polls scheduled for 10 April 2008 will definitely accelerate the polarization of the country’s politics, leading to the renewal of conflicts in different other forms. The symptoms are clear for serious observers. Pro-change and anti-change forces are doing their best within the Seven Party Alliance to establish their political agenda. Especially, those who had served feudal monarchy in the past have frequently pronounced the agenda of the Maoist insurgents while trying to obliterate them totally. In March 2007, there was a massacre in Gaur where 29 Maoist cadres and supporters were selected and killed before the eyes of Nepal government security personnel. It was mainly geared towards dismantling the peace process and revoking war. From conflict management point of view, this is not a fair game. Nevertheless, the international community took this massacre very lightly due to their ideological intolerance. If the working class people have to face life insecurity from anti-change forces even when everyone has been advocating for inclusive democracy, more violence may follow in the future.
Although all of the mainstream political forces, be they pro-change or anti-change, have agreed to participate in the constituent assembly (CA) polls, they do not mean the same thing. They have understood the agenda of the constituent assembly in different ways and will do their best to use it the way they want. The Nepali Congress and the UML want to protect their prevailing positions. They want to minimize the influence of the insurgents. But the insurgents mostly supported by the rural working class people want to establish themselves as the new rulers. They have sharp contradictions with the US Administration that has still labeled them as terrorists. They also have serious contradictions with India towards where Nepal’s foreign policy has tilted 99 percent. As part of their strategy, they will try to promote their relations with China, trying to reduce Nepal’s excessive dependence on India.
The monarchist forces are trying to make use of every available loophole. They try to catalyze violence among the forces competing for the CA polls. Many regard the monarch as the de facto ruler in Nepal because almost all the ruling mechanisms have been serving monarchy and its deep-rooted structures instead of pro-change forces. The monarchy still equipped with a die-hard army loyal to it. It is immune to any constitutional and legal provisions. It has properties that no mechanism can tax. It even owns the undefined area of land in different parts of the country. No mechanism can approach and question it for legal and research purposes. Thus, there is a wide gulf between monarchy and ordinary people. This is where the main problem of policy implementation lies. The declarations of the Seven Party Alliance have thus been limited to paper.
The existing situation of policy non-implementation in Nepal shows the possibility of the prolongation of the ongoing crisis. The 10-April CA will intensify the process of ideological polarization. The mass media have already displayed their ideological polarization symptoms.
The ongoing phenomena in Nepal also indicates that the majority of people will still have to suffer as the pro-change and anti-change forces will fight each other during the period of drafting a new constitution meant to be the document of state restructuring and transformation. The participating forces will by hook or crook try to dismiss their political adversaries by drafting a new constitution in their own favor.
The majority of poverty-stricken masses knowingly or unknowingly expect better changes in their lives. Their sub-conscious mind votes for pro-transformation forces, not for those who dream of giving continuity to their corrupt and immoral rule. Therefore, the constituent assembly is the issue of identifying pro-change and anti-change forces. A wrong identification will lead to an ill-management of the major conflicts between the state and the Maoist insurge
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