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Oil Market to Rebalance Following Output Restrictions – Kaiser Hoffman Capital

OPEC is unlikely to continue its output restrictions past June of this year.

Oil prices reached around $52 a barrel as drilling expansion in the U.S. was placed on hold and Saudi Arabia’s energy minister stated that it was doubtful OPEC would prolong its supply reductions into the second half of the year.

 

Futures did not shift by much in New York after dropping by 3 percent in the first week of 2017.

“It is unlikely that OPEC will find it necessary to continue output restrictions past the decided six-month period given the degree of compliance with the cutbacks show by member nations,” said Henry Holt, Chief Economist at Kaiser Hoffman Capital.

“We believe that the future outlook for a decided increase in production, the production cuts to date and the overall rebalancing of the market will remove the necessity to prolong the restrictions,” added Holt.
Al-Falih announced in Abu Dhabi that OPEC would review the position when it convenes again later this year and that all members have shown their readiness to extend, if the need presents itself.

 

U.S. oil has gained since the agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 other member countries to reduce production, but was incapable of maintaining its rally above $55 amid trepidation that increased prices would fuel greater production. While Middle East players have indicated that they intend to adhere to the agreed restrictions, the U.S. have increased the production estimate for this year.

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery stood at $52.32 a barrel on the NYME. Total volume traded was approximately 39 percent less than the 100-day average on Monday. The dealdecreased by 64 cents to $52.37 a barrel on Friday.
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