OPERATION IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN?

 People are talking about expected operation in North Waziristan agency. But is operation possible in NWA and if yes then against whom and also what would be the concussions of the expected operation.

Situation in SWA

·        South Waziristan agency was the main centre of Gravity of Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan.

·        In Past, in 2004, 2005 and 2008 Army launched 3 failed Operations against TTP

·         With a great increase in terrorism acts in country Pakistan army was ordered to launch operation in SWA to flush out TTP.

·         PA Launched first Phase of Operation Rah-e- Nijaat on June 19, 2009.

·        Three Infantry divisions were involved for operation and for IDP’s help.

·         Ground offensive was Launched in October 2009

·        Aim of operation was to dislodge Mahsud Taliban and their Foreign Allies mainly Uzbeks.

·         Peace deal was signed with Mullah Nazir and Wazir tribe that they will not be touched and they will not touch forces.

·         Attack on Mahsud Strong hold was launched from three directions, from Jandola, from Wana and Razmak in North Waziristan.

·         Except in few areas TTP failed to give any resistance which proved that Main leadership of TTP was able to escape during first Phase of Operation Rah-e- Nijaat.

·         At present Army controls main Mahsud Areas but the complete writ is only on roads and Main areas. Militants are still present in pockets. 

 

OPERATION in Aurak Zai

·         Forces started operation in Aurak zai in Earlier December.

·         Aurak Zai became centre of gravity of TTP after Operation Rah-e-Nijaat. Most of The Militants and their leaders escaped to Aurak Zai.

·         Aurak Zai is Traditional Strong hold of Hakeemullah Mahsud and Other sectarian outfits allied to TTP like Ghazi Force, Lashker Jhungvi etc

·         At present around 1 brigade along with  FC  battalions are engaging TTP Targets.

OPERATION IN KURRAM

·         Few Militants found refuge in Kurram Tribal agency.

·         Traditionally the agency is battle ground of Shia Sunni Conflict

·         1 brigade along with Kurram Scouts is engaging TTP militants

**Kurram was the hub of sectarian violence, Tull, Parachinar, Sada highway was closed for almost more than 18 months. There were a number of foreign militants who were fighting here and the involvement of neighboring countries is also a fact Officials have said.

OPERATION IN KHYBER

·         A brigade Plus Khyber Scouts are engage in Operation against Lashker Islam headed by Mangal Bagh and TTP militants.

** Also Ansar Ul Islam and a group called Amar-bil-Maroof was functioning over here, clashes amongst rival militant groups have killed scores of people in Khyber Agency.

OPERATION IN BAJOR AND MOHMAND

·        Army is struggling to establish writ in Bajor agency but due to with drawl of US troops in Nuristan and Kunar  province Militants are Getting safe haven in Afghanistan where they run away and regroup to fight another day. Few days Back  DG ISPR and DG FC announced Success of Operation in Bajor. But reports coming from Bajor suggest that although forces are in control of Key areas but militants are still strong.

·         Same is the case of Mohmand .

** Schools,Basic Health Units and Peace Committees are still facing the brunt of the attacks. In the past one month there has been an increase in militant activity in both agencies. Forces had claimed to have cleared 80% of the areas in Mohmand. Bajor has recently seen a number of violent incidents. 

OPERATION IN SWAT/MALAKAND/Dir

·         Although Forces broke the Back Bone of TTP Swat and Malakand but there are reports that Militants are re surfacing

·         The resurgence of violence and target killings in swat suggest that need of forces to remain in swat can only assure the peace.

**. As far as Lower Dir is concerned the situation there is much worse than Swat.

PAKISTAN ARMY DEPLOYMENT in FATA

·        Pakistan Army Consist of 19 Divisions

·         2 Divisions are engage in Counter terrorism in SWA

·         1 Div is stationed in NWA

·         2 Divisions are engage in SWAT , DIR etc

·         1 brigade in Bajor

·         1 brigade in Mohmand

·         1 brigade in Aurakzai

·         1 in Darra Adam Khel

·         1 brigade in Khyber

·         1 brigade in Kurram

·        This means so far out of 19 divisions  7 to 8 divisions are participating in Counter terrorism operations.

EXPECTED OPERATION IN NWA

Some Facts.

·         NWA IS  in habited by Wazir and Dawar tribes

·         Both Siraj Haqqani and Hafiz Gul Bahader are Waziri

·         Mollana Sadiq Nour is from Dawar Tribe and is Ally of TTP in NWA

·         There is strong Presence of Al Qaeda in areas around Mir Ali and Miran Shah. 

·         This presence of Al Qaeda Includes Punjabi Taliban belonging to Lashker Jhungvi and other sectarian out fits and foreigners especially Arabs, Chechens and Uzbeks.

·         Because the terrain is rough and there are less economic opportunities local war lords tend to give refuge to Al Qaeda and those who offer them money.

·         According to sources the NWA today is CHOCHO KA MARABA(Confusing mixture of different militants most of them on pay role of CIA ,Mossad and RAW) and situation is very confusing.

·        People are hired used and launched in Pakistan for the SAKE OF GREAT GAME IN CENTRAL ASIA.

OPERATION

·         So far there is a big confusion regarding expected operation in NWA

·         So far  forces have not signaled about the target of the operation.

·         Pakistan cannot afford to touch Haqqani network or Gul Bahader at this movement.

·         Guesses of experts are that the operation will be directed against Al Qaeda, especially against Punjabi Taliban and sectarian out fits operating in Pakistan and against forces of TTP ally Sadiq Noor and Dawar tribe.

·        Terror brought by TTP till today will be far less than the compared with that brought by NWA militants and situation will get out of hand.

CONCLUSION

 

·        The main problem is still in FATA. And since North Waziristan is in focus. The main question is What would be the operation in the area aimed at? Because certain groups are still in a peace agreement.. 

·        If Operation Will be directed at Al Qaeda and its Punjabi Associates then what will be the reaction from Haqqanies and Waziri Alliance both in NWA and SWA?

·        If Punjabi and Sectarian out fits will be main Target then why their base in South Punjab is still not on radar.

* And Most Importantly UntilOperations in Kurram, Khyber and Especially Aurakzai are are concluded the operation in NWA will be very unwise because It will streach troops and help Militants