By Peter Eichstaedt, IWPR Africa Editor.
Efforts to broker a lasting peace in Uganda can only be compared with trying to nail jelly to a tree: Try as you might, the effort invariably leaves a mess.
Though negotiators say an accord between members of the Lord’s Resistance Army and Uganda is due to be signed any day now, final implementation of the agreement remains in doubt.
The reason, as usual, can be traced to Joseph Kony, the leader of the LRA. Kony has been a slippery character since the rebellion began back in 1986.
Kony has managed to torpedo numerous peace efforts in the past. He’s accused of having executed peace emissaries sent to open negotiations.
Perhaps the closest anyone came to a real peace deal was in late 2004. Like now, all that was missing was Kony’s signature on the agreement.
At the time, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni gave Kony a deadline – something he truly hates – of midnight, Dec. 31, 2004 to sign the agreement or face the consequences.
Instead, Kony kept asking for more time, saying he needed to consult with his commanders. The deadline came and went and Ugandan forces launched their attack on the rebels.
But by then, Kony and most of his forces were settling in the Democratic Republic of Congo, supported in large part by aid provided by international relief organizations and safe from attacks by Ugandan forces.
Now, more than three years after the deadline was imposed, Kony’s representatives say he’s once again ready to sign an accord to end more than 20 years of bloodshed, death and destruction in Uganda.
There’s only one thing missing: Kony.
His new chief negotiator claims Kony is in the Congo. But a spate of reports has also placed him in the Central African Republic.
This has led to increased speculation that Kony is intent on reforming his remaining forces to turn them into a militia for hire.
Some believe that Kony chose to use the remote northern region of the Central African Republic, near where western Sudan and southern Chad meet, so that he could offer his forces’ services to the government in Khartoum in its long-running battle against rebels forces in Darfur.
All this, of course, leaves Uganda no closer to a signed peace agreement than it was four years ago.
The latest reports say that the signing ceremony will be held later this month at a remote location along the border between the Congo and Sudan. (Kony refuses to appear at a more accessible location, fearing that he might be arrested and turned over to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which indicted him for war crimes in 2005).
But no one seriously believes he’ll appear. Meanwhile, the Ugandan government says it will sign the peace agreement whether Kony shows up or not.
But how meaningful is a peace agreement signed by only one party of the conflict?
Does anyone really believe that Kony and his men will simply lay down their guns and go home just because of a piece of paper?
After 20 years of a chaotic guerrilla war during which he was never defeated or captured, why would Kony simply turn himself over to a Ugandan court to be tried for atrocities?
Even if Kony should sign the agreement -– admittedly a big if -– he is most likely to do what he has always done: Fade back into the jungle and resume his terror campaign.
And perhaps most importantly, do Ugandans think that this is a just and fair way to end 20 years of horror? What happens to justice for the thousands of victims in northern Uganda?
Without Kony or his fighters in hand, even the traditional reconciliation ceremonies, known as “mato oput,” cannot be conducted.
And what about the indictment Kony faces before the international court?
If Kony is allowed to walk away from this peace deal, signed or unsigned, both he and Uganda will be thumbing their noses at any form of justice: traditional, Ugandan, or international.
They will have also insulted the international community that has worked so hard to bring about this agreement, and for the past dozen years tried to staunch the bloodletting in northern Uganda.
As long as Kony remains at large, he is the ultimate victor in the conflict. He will have successfully used and abused the entire international community and left Ugandans his victims.
Peter Eichstaedt is Africa editor for IWPR. For more in-depth coverage, go to www.iwpr.net
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