In order to come up with a prediction of the worldwide effects of the Darfur conflict, one must know what sparked the conflict in the first place. One must know about the conflict and crisis in Darfur to further understand it and to come up with a viable prediction. Of all of Sudan, the conflict is concentrated out in Darfur. Two sides have constantly been at war with each other: Sudanese military and the Janjaweed (a militia from northern Rizeigat) against the Sudan Liberation Movement and the Justice and Equality Movement.
The Janjaweed has been provided financial support and assistance from the Sudanese government. Interestingly enough, most of the fighters and victims in Darfur are Muslim instead of it being Muslims and Christians going against each other. Religion sparked the conflict but is not the cause. The actual causes would be drought, desertification, and overpopulation which had become a problem in many of the African nations.
The Sudanese government jailed and murdered witnesses in order to cover up their dirty deeds. They had even obstructed journalists as well. This crisis has sparked in 2003 and has continued till now which has been four years already. UN peacekeepers were sent out to Darfur but there were no positive changes. In the early nineties, there were mercenary groups that did a better job and were far cheaper than the peacekeepers. But, legislation have passed that PMCs were illegal in Africa.
Still, the United States nor the United Nations were able to stop the bloodshed from going on in Darfur. Sanctions seemed to have been strained by Russia and China as Amnesty International accused them of supplying arms and ammunition to Sudan. Sudan’s military equipment has seemed to come from Russia and China such as the A5 Fantan which is Chinese or the Antonov-26 which is Russian.
The predictions are pretty unclear. United States and United Nations intervention have proven to be ineffective. However, the plight of Darfur has been made clear on shows such as Anderson Cooper 360 and Oprah Winfrey.
It things get out of hand it is possible that they can allow for PMCs to come in and stop the genocide as they have proven to be effective in Africa from a documentary I have watched. PMCs are already being used in the Middle East to act as private security for numerous companies and governments.
Don Cheadle, Matt Damon, and George Clooney along with other actors used their star power to bring attention to the conflict. But the genocide has still taken place.
A possible prediction is that China would intervene and stop due to pressure by the United States and the United Nations. During the New Hampshire Democratic Debates, Bill Richardson explained that China is the biggest customer of Sudanese oil. He explained as a result, China has economic control of Sudan. Richardson further added that the United States should threaten to boycott the 2008 Olympics which will be hosted in Beijing, China.
One of the other candidates dismissed the idea as being far too radical as it might hurt relations between the United States and China. Though it seems radical, it’s a feasible prediction as it could serve as a nail for China’s potential coffin for the 2008 Olympics. There are already two strikes against the 2008 Olympics being hosted in Beijing.
Many human rights organizations are demanding the boycott of the Olympics which is self-explanatory. That would be the first strike.
The second strike would be the contamination of China’s food and water supply where many people and animals worldwide have died as an effect. The former food and drug chief was executed after being charged with taking bribes that total almost one million dollars. The International Olympic committee is afraid of the international athletes getting sick from the tainted food and water.
A possible boycott of the Olympics on the United States side would be the third strike. We’re still a long way until the Olympics actually take place. But nothing is set in concrete.
One thing is for certain, China has a good deal of power and influence in the Darfur region. If the US does threaten a boycott, other countries might follow suit. As a result, the 2008 Olympics can possibly lose sponsorship money which is a huge chunk.
This could be a possible prediction on the worldwide effect of the Darfur crisis. But nothing is in stone yet. However, it’s already affecting a lot of people.