The volatility of the presidential race is forcing Democratic and Republican candidates to rethink their strategies. The widely held assumption that super Tuesday on February 5, with up to 22 states at stake, would prove decisive is being shredded by the failure of clear front runners to emerge.
The statewide contests are to choose delegates for the Democratic convention in Denver in August and the Republican one in Minneapolis in September. The figure needed to win the Democratic nomination to contest the November general election is 2,025 delegates, and the Republicans 1,191.
Few delegates have been chosen so far. On the Democratic side, only 4% have been chosen as a result of the opening contests, Iowa and New Hampshire. The state delegates are distributed between candidates on a proportional basis, not winner takes all. So far, Hillary Clinton has 24 delegates, Barack Obama 25 and John Edwards 18.
What happens in the next few weeks?
There are a series of primaries and caucuses, in South Carolina, Nevada, Florida and Maine. In theory, one of the candidates could emerge strongly from one of these and that would give him or her momentum going into Super Tuesday.
Super Tuesday: Could it be all over that day?
Democrats
The 22 states the Democrats are contesting on Super Tuesday amount 2,075 delegates, 52% of the total.
The Clinton team hopes to take California, the mega-state with 441 delegates. She is expected to take her home state of New York, with 281, and New Jersey with 127, while conceding Illinois, Obama’s home state, which has 185.
Other big states that day are Massachusetts and Minnesota. If Clinton were to take most super-Tuesday states, it would give her almost unstoppable momentum.
But, with the Democrats operating a proportional system of distributing delegates from each state rather than winner-takes-all, the outcome is likely to remain uncertain.
Republicans
The target for Republican candidates is 1,191 delegates. There are 1,081 delegates at stake on super Tuesday. Unlike the Democrats, the Republican system is only partly proportional and contains a large element of winner-takes-all, which makes it easier for a clear winner to emerge.
Given how wide-open the Republican race has been so far, in theory it is unlikely a clear winner will emerge on Super Tuesday. Mike Huckabee won Iowa, John McCain New Hampshire and Mitt Romney Michigan. Rudy Giuliani is banking on a win in Florida.
What happens after super Tuesday?
There are a whole host of primaries and caucuses stretching out after February 5 all the way to the summer. Washington, DC, gets its chance with a primary on February 12, with 15 delegates at stake on the Democratic side and 16 on the Republican. Although the numbers are small, it is being held in the most politically fixated city anywhere in the world. Also on the same day are the neighboring states of Maryland and Virginia
Democrats
The Clinton team claims she should be able to win in Texas, given her bigger national profile and the support of Latinos. In reality, given Obama’s newfound national profile, almost all the states are unpredictable.
Republicans
In big states, the kind of personal campaigning that McCain and Huckabee are good at is often irrelevant and it is the television ads that help decide the outcome. Romney has the resources to swamp them with ad-based campaign.
The conventions
The Democrats is in Denver from August 25 to 28. The last time there was any doubt about the outcome was 1980.
The Republicans are holding theirs in Minneapolis-St Paul from September 1-4.
Normally, both parties’ presidential candidate is known well in advance and the conventions are glorified rallies to launch the general election campaign. Although unlikely, it is theoretically possible that the contest for the nomination could go all the way to the conventions.
A tied outcome that requires a convention decision is more likely on the Republican side, given the failure of any clear front runner to emerge and the lack of general enthusiasm on the part of Republicans for any of the candidates.
Super delegates
As well as the elected delegates, the Democrats also have super delegates, those with automatic right to attend and vote at the convention, mainly members of Congress. The Democrats have 796.
The super delegates only matter if the outcome is decided at the convention, otherwise they tend to vote the same as the state they represent.
The most recent estimate is that Clinton has 161 of these, Obama 70 and Edwards 27.
The Republican equivalent are called "unpledged delegates". There are 463.