AHMEDABAD: After the elections for the first phase on December 11 in the two peace zones of 2002 – Saurashtra and South Gujarat – the state is gearing up for polls in the two war zones of the post-Godhra reprisal – Central Gujarat and Northern Gujarat.
BJP did very well in areas where the communal temperature was high in 2002. Almost all the killings took place in the CG and NG regions where even villages and tribal areas were filled with hatred and fear in what has come to be known as Hindutva’s laboratory.
The elections in 2002 saw the BJP bagging 73 of the 95 seats which will see the second and last phase of polling on Sunday.
This was the BJP’s best-ever performance in these regions, more significantly in Central Gujarat which had remained a Congress bastion for long. But CG results were not surprising, given that this was closer to ‘Ground Zero’ at Godhra.
The tribal belt running down through the east, where victims were hunted down in 2002, was completely swept by saffron wave. These polls will test whether Hindutva still rules the minds, or the riot cases, which have now got reopened, have trapped the tribals leaving behind a feeling that mob leaders had left them in the lurch.
Every time Modi names Sohrabuddin or Afzal, it is in CG and NG that the words are likely to find an echo because communal polarisation is still higher in these regions. Gains are certain for the Congress in CG as it will recover some of the ground it lost to the BJP for the first time in 2002, aided by the dissensions in the Sangh Parivar.
Of the four regions, Modi looks to be the most confident in NG, his home-ground. Here, he is sure the Kadva Patels will not join the pan-Patel rebellion engineered by the Leuva Patels, who are numerically strong in the other three regions.
NG is largely Kadva, the caste Modi is banking on heavily in these elections, which will have a higher caste than communal component in 2007.