Scientific report highlights Arctic oil and gas reserves

(The International) — In a report published yesterday, May 29, in the Science magazine, a group of researchers led by Donald Gautier from the U.S. Geological Survey has shown that about 30% of the undiscovered gas reserves and 13% of the world’s oil reserves are situated in the Arctic Ocean.

New reserves to be drilled

According to the study, the newly mapped reserves lie at shallow depths within the ocean floor, making them amenable to drilling. Ironically, it is the phenomenon of global warming that has opened larger areas of the Arctic to potential exploitation. Previously, the frozen waters of the ocean made drilling less feasible.

Environmental groups have long protested Arctic oil and gas exploration, but this is unlikely to cease as other reserves throughout the world are increasingly depleted. The attention of many countries has focused on the Arctic area as a new source of non-renewable fossil fuels. Still, the Gautier report underlined that the mapped Arctic reserves are not sufficient to challenge the prominence of the Gulf region as the main supplier of oil.

Russia’s gas prominence

The map published also shows that most of the underwater territories where the oil and gas reserves are placed lie within the Russian jurisdiction. Russia is already the main world producer of gas, and the Arctic resources will most likely increase its power. Gautier declared that “these findings suggest that in the future the … pre-eminence of Russian strategic control of gas resources in particular is likely to be accentuated and extended”.

According to Paul Berkman, specialist in Arctic politics at the University of Cambridge, UK, the Arctic is becoming an increasingly important arena of international competition. Five countries, the U.S., Russia, Canada, Denmark and Norway are making claims regarding areas of the Arctic in what has been called a new ‘gold rush’.

The impact of Arctic exploration and industrialization

While countries clash over the Arctic area, the increase in oil and gas exploration, as well as the opening of shipping routes may affect the sensitive ecosystem of the region. Environmentalists claim that exploration harms the populations of seals and polar bears of the area. The entire ecosystem may be at risk. Christian Nellemann, of the Norwegian Institute of Nature Research observes that "human kind’s interference with the delicate, ecological balance of the Arctic will allow the scavengers and marauders to take over the scene at the expense of the more specialized birds and mammals, which will decline, and in some areas, disappear”.

A 2001 UN report affirms that, if the rate of Arctic industrialization continues, more than 40% of wildlife will be disturbed by ‘critically disturbed’ by 2050. The projected disturbance in seal and bear population would also have a negative impact on the livelihood of indigenous humans, including the Eskimos, Siberian and north Canadian peoples.

Arctic politics

The recent history of the Arctic is dominated by Cold War standoffs that made the area the most militarized in the world. Russian and American nuclear submarines regularly surveyed the Arctic waters. Yet the region became much more geo-politically important after the end of the Cold War, when the thawing of the Arctic meant that new shipping routes could be developed across its waters. Furthermore, the Arctic thaw exposed the vast natural resources of the area, particularly non-renewable fossil fuels.

As per the UN Law of the Sea Convention (1982), a country can claim up to 200 nautical miles (321 kilometers) off its continental shelf. This rule implied that up to now the North Pole lay outside of any one state’s control, being administered by the International Seabed Authority. However, in a highly commented move, Russia dispatched a mini-submarine, which planted a titanium flag under the North Pole in August 2007. The country holds that the North Pole is part of Russia’s Eurasian continental shelf and has made a case in this respect at the UN in 2001. The 2007 Russian gesture sparked vivid protests from the international community, and particularly Denmark, which on its turn has claimed that in fact the North Pole is an extension of Greenland.

Countries’ claims over the Arctic

The U.S., Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark are all locked in ‘frozen’ disputes in the area. Canada and Denmark clash over Hans Island off Greenland, Russia and Norway over rights in the Barents Sea, while the United States and Canada have disagreed over Canada’s control of the Northwest Passage across North America.

Besides these competing claims, new developments are complicating the balance of power in the region. For instance, in November 2008, Greenland (a Danish colony) has voted to own most of its natural resources, in a move that has sparked speculation about a break-up from Denmark. Furthermore, the implication of Chinese and Islamic companies in oil and gas exploitation has raised concerns over possible claims from their countries.

The way forward: an Arctic Forum?

The escalation of national interests in the Arctic threatens to become a major international security issue. Currently, Arctic land claims are generally handled by the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. However, the UN Commission’s power does not extend over the maritime areas, which are not currently covered by any clear body.

As Berkman has pointed out, a forum that would foster international dialogue over the region must be established to diffuse the conflict. Berkman and others suggest that the way forward would include focusing on common grounds, such as environmental concerns and regional stability.