SEOUL – Kim Jong-il, 66, has led communist North Korea for 14 years under whom the secluded country has seen its economy shrink, ballistic missile arsenal swell and U.N. sanctions imposed due to its nuclear program and first atomic test more than two years ago.
After speculation that Kim had suffered a stroke, South Korea’s president convened an emergency meeting of his cabinet to prepare for possible changes in North Korea. "We should have thorough and precise readiness so we can respond to any situation without confusion," President Lee Myung-bak was quoted as saying in a statement as per a spokesman of the presidential Blue House. "There was a report that Chairman Kim is recovering from a stroke in the brain circulatory system and does not appear to be in a serious condition," the Blue House spokesman said. The statement said the South had spotted no unusual troop movements in the North but Lee had asked his government to step up readiness plans for possible war and anarchy.
The mystery surrounding Kim also leaves a question mark for South Korea, for which a worst-case scenario would be the collapse of the North, leaving it facing social chaos that could wreck Asia’s fourth-largest economy. Kim’s death would create huge uncertainty over leadership in a country whose deep distrust of the outside world is backed by a 1.2 million-troop-strong army and possibly atomic weapons.
The North has threatened to turn the capitalist South to dust and considers Japan and the United States as mortal enemies. Kim’s illness comes as the North appears to be backing away from an international nuclear disarmament deal and analysts said progress would almost certainly be scuttled if there was a leadership struggle.
Kim’s health and possible successor are two of Pyongyang’s most closely guarded secrets. South Korea said in a 2006 intelligence report that when Kim died, it expected the North Korean government to lapse into a brief coma and then hunker down with top military officials battling for power, perhaps in partnership with one of Kim’s three known sons.
During his time in power, Kim has crushed dissent and placed an enormous distance between himself and any potential rival, which means there is no clear heir.