Steve Jobs is a clever fellow. I know you, you probably know it, and he’s said that he knows it. Once in a while, he drops a bomb on all of us, and we are made to bask in his glow for as long as our cynicism allows (you know, before we start taking innovations for granted). Usually, Jobs is known to offer us some public face-time right around bomb-dropping time, as was recently the case with the iPhone. But don’t worry, I’m not here to bore you with more babbling about the next godly gadget. It’s what he’s done with the coda of his face-time that is even more interesting.
Sure, that phone gizmo will revolutionize this and that, but there’s a bigger elephant in the room: the music industry. On February 6th, Jobs made a statement on the Apple site about the future of online music, and for that matter, music at large. Why is this bigger than the iPhone? Because while many millions will be spent in the wake of the iPhone’s release — people buying it, companies copying it, accessories being sold — the music industry is something that has been on the verge of an evolutionary step for perhaps longer than any other industry. That is to say, it has refused to take baby steps along the path of its nature evolution, clinging fiercely to its staid perch as an entity in the world, watching other giants like the film industry and the computer industry pass it by.
Really, the only other industry that comes to mind is automotive, which is about to stage its own Custer’s Last Stand, as the destruction of the planet starts to creep into the conscience of more and more people. They’re already fighting back in the EU against proposed regulations that they call too hard (video link) and environmentalists call too soft. Well, expect a similarly tenacious and obdurate fight from the music industry, a.k.a. the RIAA.
The RIAA is a champion of the status quo. Remember when VHS came out? The film industry (the MPAA) fought against it tooth and nail, until at one point they did indeed recognize that it was a losing fight, and joined the fray. The result was instead of spending their resources on FBI raids of private homes with movies on blank tape, they opened up a gigantic new revenue stream. Today, DVD’s can make almost any movie profitable.
Meanwhile, the RIAA has fought against blank tapes, used CD’s and online music with all their considerable resources. Once again, the MPAA is beginning to embrace the idea of downloading movies and movies on-demand, but the music industry still won’t buy the concept of online music. Their draconian tactics have certainly made many more enemies than friends… while I don’t think the MPAA has any fan clubs, I’m pretty sure that most people would be happy to see the demise of the RIAA. Why? Perhaps it’s because the MPAA is still integral to the film industry, while the RIAA is damn close to redundant.
For decades, the RIAA has controlled nearly all the channels of music, and without pioneering new trails for music appreciation to grow, it’s no wonder that their old story is getting stale. In today’s digital, online age, it’s becoming easier and easier for people to find their own music, share their own taste, and get recommendations that actually work pretty well. Sites like Last.fm and Pandora.com are doing the job of corporate radio stations and record label marketing departments.
Where Steve Jobs fits into this, is exactly where he positioned himself to be by this point in time. He’s running the world’s biggest online store, and making tons of money off of the ubiquitous iPod, and his people are talking to the RIAA on a daily basis. His contention is that it’s silly to continue to have proprietary music software encryption (DRM), just because the RIAA is hanging onto this archaic idea of their business. If CD’s don’t have it, he says, and people fill up their iPods with over 90% songs that are not from iTunes, what’s the point? When someone can buy a CD, rip it, and share it with a million people over the web in an hour, how does protecting an iTunes Store song help anyone?
He also concedes that the present system is okay for now (and Apple is making plenty doing it), but it’s not really sustainable. Following that, he offers some new directions.
Overall, I have to admit that he’s right. It’s a broken system, with anyone able to rip a CD and share it. At this point, you’re not going to stop people from doing that. And while the RIAA says that it’s not about possession of a disc, but the license to listen to the music that’s on it, I have yet to receive my coupons for free upgrade from Boston’s Boston on vinyl to Boston’s Boston on cassette. And Boston’s Boston on CD. And how about DVD-Audio?
Let’s face it: the age of buying a collection of music in a store and bringing it home to play on your stereo is coming to a close. We need a new system, and it must be a radical change. We can’t just strip musicians of their incomes, but then they only make a tiny percentage of the sale of a CD anyhow (unless you buy it from their own website). Here’s my prediction: the RIAA will fight tooth and nail, and they will lose.
What’s your prediction? Where and how do you see music being sold in ten years and twenty years? Let me know in the comments!