Pakistan army has started second Phase of military operation against terrorist network of Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan in South Waziristan agency. First Phase of this military operation code named OPERATION RAH E NIJAT started in early June of this year.
In first Phase the focus was on softening TTP targets by aerial and artillery bombardment and intelligence operations. On side lines tight blockade was enforced around TTP Mahsud Areas and around SWA and NWA.
The main focus of first Phase was Intelligence operations against TTP. Pakistani agencies succeeded in breaking hard core TTP leaders like Alf Khan Bhitani and Shaheen Bhitani from TTP. Agencies also succeeded neutralizing other important tribes and their leaders to remain neutral. The biggest success came when biggest tribe of NWA and SWA, Wazir tribe announced that it will remain neutral. Other tribes like Bhitani and Barkies etc followed. This intelligence success has enabled forces to focus on TTP in SWA without worrying other tribes and their groups.
On other hand the disinformation about dispute in TTP leadership and killing of Hakeem ullah Mahsud helped the demoralization of TTP in other agencies and areas and it helped friends to enter TTP strongholds and friends in the territory to hide their identities as the impression in TTP SWA circles became that Government knew nothing what was happening in SWA.
Intelligence operations were helped by the blockade of NWA and SWA, which created information black out. Forces fully in advantage exploited this information blackout and many successes were made. A small example is of disputes among Aurak zai Taliban who all belonged to Hakeem ullah group.
After the successful completion of first phase, Pakistan Army Launched second phase of military operation on 17th Oct at 1900 hours. Some analysts think second phase was launched due to GHQ attack and Lahore/Peshawar attacks. I personally think it was not the case because forces are trained to stick to their planning, that is why they acted on 17th as they have planned.
On 17th forces started advancing towards TTP strong hold in Mahsud area from three sides. From the north they started from Razmak area, from east from Jandola and from west from Wana. At present government has assembled 60,000 troops for this operation out of which 28,000 are currently engaging TTP terrorists.
Forces have enveloped Terrorists from all sides and all their escape routes have been blocked.
It is estimated that there are 10 to 15 thousand terrorists in area who are re-enforced by 4 to 5 thousand Uzbeks and other foreign terrorists.
TTP started preparing its defenses for anticipated attack during Swat and Malakand operation. Reports suggest that they are well dug in. They have advantage of knowing the territory. But this advantage is getting wasted due to aerial reconnaissance by Pakistani and American drones and Army aviation’s helicopters. At present TTP has failed to mount any tough resistance.
Government in clear statement has defined SWA as centre of gravity of TTP. But is SWA centre of gravity of TTP?
TTP or movement of Taliban in Pakistan is an alliance of 20 to 30 militant groups helped by Al Qaeda. These all groups are Takfiries with their own networks and commands.
Like Al Qaeda by just killing its main leadership or capturing its one or two stronghold cannot destroy it. Fighting networks is a time taking and one has to cut each and every knot of net to get full success. In other words a network has multiple centers of gravity and each needs to be destroyed to get full success.
In Pakistan TTP have multiple power areas. Aurak Zai is very important agency in this regard. After SWA, Aurak Zai is the place where TTP has training infrastructure. Hakeem ullah Mahsud himself has a strong base in Aurak Zai. About 50 % suicide bombers were trained in Aurak zai who committed terrorist attacks in all over Pakistan.
Then there is Mohmand agency where forces are carrying successful operation against Harkat tul Mujahideen Omer Khalid Group.
Mangal Bagh has emerged as ally of TTP in Khyber. Forces are engaging him in Khyber agency with success.
In Bajor in 2007 ,operation Sher Dil broke backbone of TTP Bajor. This is the Place where Molvi Faqir Muhammad, deputy chief of TTP is based. At present an operation is being carried out against his forces that recently started regrouping.
In Punjab, especially Southern Punjab areas like DG khan, Bhakkar and Rojhan have emerged as areas where there is strong presence of extremists. In recent attacks in Lahore and Pindi, Punjabi Taliban from south were involve. A police operation is likely underway.
Similarly there are strong militant networks in Mianwali, Sargodha, Fasilabad and other important cities and districts of Pakistan. Recently Security forces have arrested TTP Karachi Chief Akhtar Zaman from Karachi. Which means that each city has its own extremist network and leadership, which needs to be found and neutralized. .
The reaction of SWA operation has started coming out. Twin blasts at Islamic University in Islamabad in which 2 students of Sharia faculty have died demands swift and scientific action against local networks in different cities.
Militants have proven that they have no religion and have reached the extremes where rationality is not what they under stand.
Karl Von Clausewitz defined war as “extension of Political Policy by other means”. Pakistani government and Army have defined the political policy, which is to eliminate the terrorism from Pakistan. Pakistan has lost more then 2000 soldiers along with thousands of civilians and other security personals.
Pakistan has failed in its efforts to engage extremists in polite and peace full way. Enemy has time and again taught us that it cannot not understand peaceful language. Now Pakistan is at war. Its time government starts building minds of people. Pakistan has to fight this war on two battlefields
· Information / Propaganda field: Pakistan can only win this war by winning hearts and minds of Public. This is a war in which victory is only possible when whole nation stands by the government. At one side Pakistan have to win hearts of IDP’s coming from effected areas and on other bring consensus amongst people by exposing the faces of people who support the extremists.
· On ground Pakistan have to engage extremists physically to cut their political, material and ideological support. Its time to have no soft corner for whom so ever supports extremist’s weather they are internal enemies or are external forces. Its Pakistan’s battle for existence, which we cannot afford to lose.
Summing up through out Pakistani cities different extremist organizations have their networks. TTP has multiple centres of Gravity. This war cannot be won and Pakistan unless we break these terror networks and their sleeper cells. It’s a long war. Pakistan has to break this network thread-by-thread and knot by knot.
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