Senior researchers at Britain’s International Institute for Strategic Studies warned on Tuesday that “neo-Taliban” groups operating in Pakistan’s tribal areas may soon become a global menace.
“They have the potential to turn a local threat into a trans-national threat,” said Nigel Inkster, who directs a risk analysis unit at the London-based security think tank. “There is some evidence they were involved with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and that they have dispatched terrorists to the United Kingdom and Spain.”
He said international terrorism remains a “growth industry” and that the groups in Pakistan had earned the “dubious honour” of making the most strides during the past year. In its annual report on the world’s military forces, the institute found that the situation in Iraq had improved because of the “surge” in US troops ordered by President George W Bush.
But director-general John Chipman warned these advances would be swiftly undone if the US draws down its troop strength too quickly. He said the US troop levels had to stay high to prevent an increase in Shia military activity, provide security for any provincial elections and keep violence in Kurdistan from increasing.
Chipman said the prospect of US military action against Iran had diminished in the last year because US intelligence reports downplayed Iran’s nuclear threat, but warned that Iran still appeared to be developing its nuclear weapons potential.
“Iran shows no sign of abiding by United Nations Security Council demands to stop its current enrichment activity,” he said. The think tank said Afghanistan risks becoming a failed state if Nato troops do not defeat the Taliban, boosting Islamist extremism worldwide, warning the West was struggling with a lack of resources.
It also lamented growing signs that the insurgency was expanding from the south of the country into northern provinces, with rebels learning lessons from Iraq. The IISS annual study said there was a general acceptance that defeating the militants was of international importance and would require long-term, joined-up commitments from all countries involved.
But the Nato operation was most at risk where its technical advantage was reduced, particularly in eastern Afghanistan where troops had been engaged in intense fighting with militia, IISS said in “The Military Balance 2008”.
“Failure in these actions would risk boosting Islamic extremism (not just in Afghanistan), would produce a failed state in an area of strategic importance, and would offer safe haven to terrorist organisations and the narcotics trade.
“It would also undermine the credibility of Nato in its first major out-of-area combat operation,” the study said. The IISS said that although Nato’s 41,000-strong force was bolstering President Hamid Karzai’s fledgling government, the administration “still lacks authority in much of the country”.
The report echoed warnings last week from two US think-tanks – the Atlantic Council of the United States and the Afghanistan Study Group – who said troop levels had to be ramped up and major changes had to be implemented urgently.