As analyzed in my various articles, the UPA has ultimately won the confidence motion in the lower house by 19 votes. The contest which was supposed to be razor sharp, was ultimately easier thanks to the half-hearted approach by BJP.
The UPA managed its share of votes, which was predicted by me in my article “India: Politics of Number Game in Parliament After Withdrawal by Left” and “Confidence Vote: With BJP on the Defensive it’s Smooth for Congress and Nuclear Deal.”
Even in my article “Confidence Vote: Confidence level of UPA and Opposition” I have predicted 265 solid votes for both UPA and opposition with about 12 fence sitters. It is these fence sitters who turned the tables on the D-day in favor of UPA government, by the last day manipulations by Congress (rumored as purchased votes!). The opposition on the other hand lost ten of their votes due to abstentions.
In the end the UPA stalwarts, particularly, Amar Singh, Pranab Mukherjee, Sharad Pawer etc. managed the show very well. Now for the rest of the term of the UPA (about 9 months), the Government shall have a better opportunity to handle reforms although much cannot be expected on this front because of the priority of cooling the prices on the inflation front which is reigning 12%, a thirteen year high.
In a dramatic movement, wads of 1000 rupee bundles were produced in the house by some members who claimed that the amount was given as advance to ‘purchase’ votes. The Honorable Speaker assured the house that the matter would be probed and guilty punished. This ruckus held up the proceedings of the house for over an hour.
I have also said in my above referred second article that USA has managed BJP and RSS, which were also proved by 7 members of BJP voting in favor of UPA and two BJP members remaining absent. Mamata Banerjee also remained absent apart from 6 others of NDA combinations.
The fight in the floor of the house was so intense that three MPs convicted to life term for crimes like murders, extortions were temporarily released from jail for their participation in the voting (for UPA) and an incapacitated member was wheeled into the house.
With this win, the nuclear deal is clicked, with the seal of parliament endorsing it, and after-effect if any, would only be understandable after the result of next Parliamentary elections (to be Held in April’09) are declared. However UPA need to handle the inflation seriously to show that Liberalization and Reforms are the good for the people of the country.