WHERE ARE THE SOLDIERS OF TTP?

Operation Rah e Nijat has entered 4^th week today, so far except in one or two places we have seen TTP fighter melting away and giving no resistance. In Past three weeks 400 plus militants were killed and forces suffered less then forty casualties.

Forces have captured and cleared Laddah, Sararoga, Kot kai and Kunigram, which were important bases of TTP terrorists and their Al Qaeda Allies. Today forces have also entered Makeen, which was where Baitullah Mahsud got killed. Forces have discovered large amount of Russian and Indian Ammunition, Hundreds of hide outs and caves used by Militants. Pakistani forces have linked each other from all three axisis from where they started their offensive. Encirclement of extremists is now complete. Now they will be pushing the TTP and Al Qaeda terrorists in center into the designated killing zone to kill maximum militants.

 According to reports resistance is only being given by foreign fighters. Local Taliban have either escaped to Kurram or Aurak zai or are not getting into fight with forces. It is also becoming visible that Majority of Mahsuds ,were supporting TTP due to coercion from hardcore militants and foreign elements especially Uzbeks. Now when nearly all leadership has went underground and their bases are in control of forces these Mahsuds are free from TTP coercion and are not fighting a war which they never wanted to fight.

TTP leadership it self appears to be confuse by the resistance its forces is showing. Hakeem Ullah in a massage to his fighter has said, as reported by associated press

Do not look for excuses to run away from the fighting, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan chief Hakeemullah Mehsud told his fighters on Thursday. “Remember, this is the commandment of God that once fighting starts with the enemy, you cannot leave the battlefield without permission from your commander,” he told the Taliban in a speech, broadcast on Tuesday over a wireless radio network. Those who do run away, he warned, “such people will go to hell.” “We are in jihad and we should not pay heed to the whispers of Satan,” Mehsud said. ap

 According to Colonel Ikram Sehgal, Editor of Defense Journal, the hard core Taliban were not more then 1500 to 2000 they had support of nearly 1500 Uzbeks, Chechens and Arabs. It makes total enemy force near to 3000 fighters. The assessment of forces about TTP militants was some where between 15000 to 20000, which was based on intelligence assessment, which counted the civilians coerced in to becoming Taliban as TTP fighters.

Defeating TTP is not as simple as many of us belive.To defeat TTP we have to break each and every thread of its network because if we want to   understand what force  TTP is,  we have to realize that it’s a network of 20 to 30 extremist organizations. It’s not like a conventional force with bases in which troops are concentrated. The out fits which make TTP have their own strong areas. In many cases these different out fits have ideological and personal disputes amongst each other. For example Taliban from Swat are very different from those in Waziristan. Taliban of Bajor follows Panjpiri ideology which is amalgam of extreme Deobandi and Salfi ideology. TTP SWA is more criminal then a other Jihadi out fits. Similarly TTP Aurak Zai and Kurram, Al though belongs to Hakeem ullah Mahsud out fit is more sectarian then TTP Mohmand or Bajor or SWAT.

It is not realistic to think that clearing SWA is going to eliminate terrorism in Pakistan. In fact it will have very minute effect. At present there are three areas which have emerged as important militant strong holds amongst them Aurak zai and Kurram Agency have Taliban training infrastructure where as South Punjab especially Bhakkar, DG Khan and Rojhan have ideal conditions for recruitment of extremists.

Some analysts think to make operation successful forces must kill or capture TTP top leadership includeing Hakeem Ullah Mahsud, Qari Hussain and Wali Ur Rehman Mahsud. By killing or capturing them, will provide conditions similar to the conditions which Pakistan failed to exploit fully when Baitullah Mahsud was killed in August this year.

Some analysts are saying that Hakeem ullah Mahsud is not in SWA. He escaped to Aurak Zai where his in-laws live.  If that’s true then Aurak Zai should be next Target.

One more thing which has become clear is that USpresence in Afghanistan is the biggest reason for militancy in the region. Colletral damage caused by US and NATO and damage done due to Pashtun genocide is cause of resurgence of Taliban in Afghanistan and TTP in Pakistan. TTP was no where prior to American occupation ofAfghanistan, By not   understanding Afghan culture and values and  then devising proper strategy Americans have  played in the hands of India andNorthern Alliance. 

Tribals in FATA and NWFP were bound to help their brothers who were prosecuted in Afghanistan. US and NATO failed to understand basic fact that without addressing Pashtun grievances US and world community’s efforts were meaningless.

Now when Barak Obama is in white house, USleadership is trying to take steps in positive direction. Recognizing Hamid Karzai as Legitimately elected President of Afghanistan and efforts for Negotiations with Afghan Taliban are steps in right direction.

In Afghanistan when US is taking right directions,Pakistan has become victim of American Policy effects. Now when Pakistan is on fire, without apology to Pakistani nation, US is admitting that it’s responsible for mess it created.

 

Clearly, Al Qaeda left Afghanistan. And we let them out, she told Greta Van Susteren of FOX News. You know, we should have taken them out when we had the chance back in 2001 and 2002 and they escaped. And they escaped into Pakistan.

Asked if the US was also responsible for Al Qaeda’s presence in Fata, Secretary Clinton acknowledged that if the US had done a better job in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda would not have slipped into Pakistan.

If we had done a better job going into Afghanistan and capture the people who had attacked us or killed them you know, we would be in a different position,’ she said.  

On other hand Afghan Taliban has also rejected offer by US for negotiations. Mullah Brader Akhund in interview with CNN in clear words said

"This war will come to an end when all invaders leave our country,"   

If Obama administration is really interested in eliminating de-stability in the region then it should give time table for troop pull out from Afghanistan. Analysts say that US and NATO presence in the region is the biggest source of de-stability in the region. So far Pakistan has given lots of sacrifices for American ego and intrests. We have fought Extremists in Bajor, Malakand and SWA and defeated them. But our success is not getting effects because Pashtuns are Pashtuns and after religion they follow their thousands of year old code of conduct Pashtun wali . Some time Pashtunwali over comes their religous obligations. They are simple but traditional. Talibanization is only possible in Pashtun tribal areas and they cannot force it in settled areas and both Americans and Taliban knows it.

By disturbing Pashtun tribal culture an amalgam of Religious fanatics, Nationalists and criminal elements has come out as Tehrik Taliban Pakistan. If US and NATO Leaves Afghanistan Pashtun nationalists and Religious extremists will settle down and criminal element will be easily neutralized.

Any one who has research on Taliban knows Taliban has local agenda. They fought only inAfghanistan. Their movement under went many Phases. During first Phase they were reactionary force against Land and Drug lords. Then they became Pashtun nationalists who claimed Islam to be their ideological base but followed PashtunWali more then Islam. Then Al Qaeda was introduced by courtesy of Barhanuddin Rabbani of Northern Alliance who became ally of Taliban due to money and superior ideology but still Taliban remained in Limits of Afghanistan.

The real enemy of world peace was and is Al Qaeda and Takfiri ideology. But according to Hillary Clinton it managed to escape from Afghanistan. It came to Pakistan but due to Pakistani military operations is now running to Somalia and Yeman .It means the aim of war in Afghanistan has been achieved. US and NATO should leave Afghanistanand head for Somalia and Yeman or afford the region to destabilize further and sow more seeds of hatred in hearts of the people dwelling here.

The paper analysts who are more Islam phobic orPakistan phobic are trying their best to mislead their people. I have always advocated to Strategic Culture theory in understanding regional problems.

Understand the culture then act and you will win hearts and minds along with ground. Stop pursuing your so called strategic interests which are making people suffer in other parts of the world. God has Blessed America and west be thank full to his kindness don’t be a curse for other fellows who see you as elder brother and when you fail to act like one they become reactionary.