Who will be next PM of India?

The bugle for battle royal of ballot has been blown and official announcement is matter of a few weeks from now. The political parties have started their strategic deployments and to look for allies and prospective candidates and some have even gone a step further by announcing candidates for some of the constituencies. So it is high time to analyze what is going to happen in election 2009 for Lok Sabha (LS) and who is going to be the next Prime Minister. Before coming to the actual numbers.

There are two main alliances, first is Congress lead UPA which is presently ruling the center and was being supported by left parties from outside and after the withdrawl of support by left, SP of Mulayam Singh Yadav has joined it and the second is BJP lead NDA which was in power before it.  There are some regional parties which are not part of any alliance and some of them are talking of third front with the support of left to create an alternative both to Congress and BJP, and BSP is harbouring the ambition to emerge as a power center under the leadership of UP Chief Minister Mayawati.

There are about in between 67 to 70 crore voters in India. On an average only 55% of them cast their votes during Lok Sabha elections whereas the percentages are higher for state and local body elections respectively. Usually during a general election the poor people cast their votes en masse, middle classes also cast their votes in large proportions whereas the rich and elite hardly come out of their cozy and air conditioned abodes to cast their votes. The biggest example of this elite group is of Prime Minister (PM) Dr. Manmohan Singh who is in Parliament since 1992 first as Finance Minister and then leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha and lastly as Prime Minister but he has never bothered (reports say) to cast his vote may be local body, state assembly or Lok Sabha elections except in 1998 general elections. But this time voter turn out is expected to be higher because the youth of the country seems to be quite enthusiastic and wants to play a decisive role.

Congress is known as grand old party of the country which has been ruling the country for 48 years and major part of the states in last 62 years. Presently it is ruling in Haryana, Delhi, Andhra Pardesh, Arunachal Pardesh & Manipur with its own majority and has its Chief Ministers in Rajasthan, Goa, Assam & Maharashtra with support of others and is in coalition in J&K and Tamil Nadu which together account for about 199 seats of Lok Sabha. Gradually it has been shrinking in size. Presently it is headed by Sonia Gandhi, Italy born widow of Late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.  People have ignored her foreign origin and had accepted her as a leader because of Nehru-Gandhi connection. During last general election she was given the mandate to rule the country but she renounced Prime-Ministership with mega show of Maha-Tayag and nominated Dr. Manmohan Singh for the post. Lot of water has flown down the Ganges in the last four years and nobody except the sycophants credit her with the spirit of Maha-Tayag because people believe with conviction that with her master stroke she had not only gained the absolute control over party organization but also of executive powers of the government without any responsibility. To maintain absolute control  she is running the party and the government with a caucus who have no contact with the masses like Ahmed Patel, Margret Alva Abhishek Singhvi and Oscar Fernandes in the party and Dr. Manmohan Singh, Arjun Singh, Shivraj Patil, Sushil Kumar Shinde, Valyar Ravi, Ambika Soni, Saif-u-Din Soz etc. in the government. She has not spared even the Rashtrapati Bhawan from the malady.
After the Ram Janambhoomi Movement BJP has been occupying the center stage of politics. Presently it is ruling in six states ( HP, Uttrakhand, MP, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat & Karnatka) and is in ruling coalition in others like Punjab, Bihar, Orissa which together contribute 177 seats to Lok Sabha. BJP has already declared Mr. L.K. Advani as its Prime Ministerial candidate and its present NDA allies have also endorsed him although some of his own colleagues like Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and Narender Modi are giving him jitters. Even the Sangh Parivar, the mentor of BJP, is not very enthusiastic about Mr. Advani. RSS is unhappy for his deviation from Hindutava and his effort to project himself as a secularist by praising M. A. Jinah. VHP is unhappy with him and the BJP for its failure to construct a Ram Mandir at Ayudhaya though they were in power both in center and UP. Since they can not support Congress and BJP is nearer to their agenda so they have no choice but to support the BJP.

The Congress party came to power in 2004 with the slogan of ‘Congress Ka Haath Aam Aadmi Ke Saath’ but has done very little to ameliorate the plight of Aam Aadmi. Instead Congress has emerged as a champion of rich and neo-rich and the dispensation is neck deep in scams and the latest is Satyam Scam to its credit. BJP tried to lure the people with the slogan of ‘India Shining’ in 2004 and now Congress is repeating the same formula under the name of ‘Indian Dream’. The hollowness of the propaganda has been punctured by corrupt practices at the highest level, crushing price rise for the Aam Aadmi. Government raised the prices of fuel products many times during its rule. The international price of crude has come down to $35 from $147 but government has played a cruel joke with Aam Aadmi by reducing price of petrol by Rs 5 and diesel by 3 and none for cooking gas. It is playing with time to reduce the prices by a respectable margin to cash it in the election. ATF which is used in airplanes owned by supra rich and used by rich has been reduced five times by big margins. This is proof enough that present government is working for 5-10% rich population and using the Aam Aadmi as cannon fodder.
Government has miserably failed on the front of internal security and in preventing the terrorist attacks. The 26/11 attack on Mumbai is being used by the ruling party as a blessing in disguise. Using it as a pretext it has adopted so many laws which will be used to rob the Aam Aadmi of his fundamental rights and give the licence to authorities to violate Human Rights with impunity. Congress is trying to play a proactive role to rouse the patriotic sentiments of Aam Aadmi by waging a war of words with Pakistan. Though it is written on the wall that government will achieve nothing as for as cross border terrorist activities are concerned and in the process will further expose that it can do nothing except crying wolf. Even the intelligence drill is also going to be a damp squib in spite of all the hullabaloo. By getting a nation of 110 crore people attacked by 10 mercenaries due to poor intelligence and governance, Congress party intends to win the general election by creating a hype against Pakistan. It is an established fact that New Delhi can not move an inch on the issue without permission from Washington and Pakistan knows this weakness and has got the expertise to exploit it. It is true that Indian electorate is swayed by sentiments like after the 1971 war, Kargil conflict, assassinations of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi but this is to be seen whether the spin doctors of Congress Party can create that level of sentiment by saber-rattling against Pakistan. Not to talk of a drastic action Indian government has not been able to withdraw the award of Most Favoured Nation to Pakistan. Not only terrorism, the government has failed to tackle the menace of naxalism and has tried to pass the buck to state governments.

Other important issue is Hindu bashing by Congress party to appease the Muslim electorate. First the government filed an affidavit in Supreme Court that there is no historical proof of Lord Rama and characters associated with him (like Hanuman, Sita, Balmiki etc.) which it had to withdraw under pressure but the damage was already done.

All sorts of UPA allies hurled dirty accusations against Lord Rama. Congress government of J&K cancelled land allotted for temporary shelter for Hindu pilgrims going to Amarnath Yatra. Congress government let loose a media blitzkrieg of Hindu terrorism with a specific motive. Here again congress design was punctured by 26//11 Mumbai attack. Moreover Muslim population of India is also a mature electorate and is not going to be deceived by such gimmicks and wants the government to work for their socio-economic development. Above all regional satraps have taken advantage to win them to their sides. Now it is big question whether Mulayam Singh Yadav popularly called Mulla Mulayam can still retain their confidence and bring them to Congress fold.
Congress Party has completed the agenda of vertical divide of the Indian society by implementing the Mandal Commission left incomplete by late Prime Minister, V.P Singh. HRD Minister Arjun Singh has tried to emerge as a champion of the OBCs. Only time will tell whether he caused service or damage to the Congress party by this divisive act. Moreover OBC population is not pocket borough of any political party and they are following their own leaders in particular areas. With changed atmosphere and awareness, they can not be expected to act like SC & ST population of old times that will form en block vote bank of congress party. With growing disenchantment and emergence of leaders like Maya Wati even SC & ST electorate have slipped out of congress hand in many states Congress (UPA) has a mixed card. In spite of its failures it has many achievements to its credit. Indo-US nuclear deal is one of these. It was turned into an emotional drama and enacted in Parliament with tainted show of strength. At the height of moment it had touched the hearts of urban middle class and youth but the allegations of purchased vote of confidence had taken its shine off. It is not certain if the congress party will be able to sell this during electioneering. Right to Information Act is another big achievement in the direction of empowering the aam aadmi. Schemes like National Rural Employment Guarantee, National Rural Health Mission, loan waiver for farmers, setting of central universities, IIMs and IITs in various states all seem to be well intended and beneficial for the development of nation but are plagued with corruption and red-tapism.
Overall neither there is a wave in favour nor against any political party. If the track record of Congress as ruling party is dismal then BJP has nothing to show as an opposition party except for disrupting the functioning of Parliament and its honourable members accepting bribes for asking questions in the house or for sending people outside the country (kabootabazi). From this account Congress seems to have a head start with advantage because of government. Therefore it will depend upon the managements in the states and hence every state will have different picture to show. The choice of candidates and their credibility will play a major role e.g. if former Home Minister Shiv Raj Patil contests from his constituency then the electorate will respond by defeating him for the fourth consecutive time.

JAMMU & KASHMIR: State has just witnessed the assembly election. Regional party National Conference has assumed power under Omar Abdullah in alliance with Congress party. The state sends 6 members to Lok Sabha. In 2004 2 seats went to Congress, 2 to NC and one each to PDP and independent. There is clear divide between Jammu and valley. In two seats of Jammu it is a straight fight between BJP and Congress and BJP has advantage of anti Congress sentiments created by Amarnath land row whereas National Conference and PDP are contenders for the valley seats. PDP has the backing of hard liners whereas NC has the advantage of coming to power very recently.

PUNJAB: The state sends 13 members to Lok Sabha. In 2004 two members of congress, 3 of BJP and 8 of regional party Shiromani Akali Dal won from here. Now state is being ruled by SAD & BJP combine and they will enter the electoral fray with old formula of 10 seats for SAD and 3 for BJP. There are 3 members in the union cabinet but none of them seems to be enthusiastic to face the electorate because remaining in good books of Sonia Gandhi gives them more leverage than by facing the electoral battle. S.S Badal son of Chief Minister P.S Badal was made party president and now has been made deputy Chief Minister and ultimately will be made Chief Minister. So it is prestigious election for younger Badal because if his party is routed then his claim for chief ministership will be weakened and this is for the first time that his party is going to polls under his presidentship. There is general feeling of disenchantment in the state because of prevailing corruption and concentration of power and wealth in one family. It is to be seen whether congress party has the ability to exploit because it is a house divided in itself. If Congress plays its cards well by right choice of candidates and projecting a united front then it can wrest half of the seats from the opposition otherwise it will rue ltself.
HIMACHAL PARDESH: State has four Lok Sabha seats. In 2004 the state was under Congress rule and the congress romped home in 3 seats whereas BJP won only. But now the state is under BJP rule and the party is all set to sweep the state or at least will reverse the situation of 2004.

HARYANA: The state has 10 seats. In 2004 state was under regional party INLD rule and congress won in 9 seats and BJP in one. After that Mr. Bhajan Lal former Chief Minister has moved out of congress party and floated his regional outfit called HJC. INLD & BJP had parted ways but now they have united again and have decided to contest the election in alliance which is ominous for the congress party so the later is facing a rout, it will be a bonus if it manages to retain a seat or two with the personal charisma of its young leaders because Haryana is unique by sending youth to Lok Sabha like Shelja, Jindal, Surjewala, Hooda and Bishnoi.

DELHI: Delhi has 7 seats. In 2004 six members from Congress and 1 from BJP had won. In 2004 Delhi was under Congress rule headed by Shiela Dixit and it was same in 1999 when BJP swept the Lok Sabha seats. In recently held assembly elections Congress party romped home under stewardship of Shiela Dixit and she completed a hat-trick. But Congress victory was reward for good work of Shiela Dixit and Delhi voter is very astute and can distinguish between the two elections. So Congress is going to have a rough ride.

RAJASTHAN: The state has 25 seats. In 2004 BJP was ruling the state and had won 21 seats and congress got another 4. In recently held assembly elections BJP lost the election and Congress emerged as single largest party with 96 six seats, five short of a majority and managed to form the government under Ashok Gehlot. People of the state have taken their revenge from Vasundhra Raje Scindhia for her corruption tainted and lathi goli ki srarkar. In 1999 congress was ruling the state under Ashok Gehlot with a majority in assembly. Even then congress managed to get only 9 seats and remaining 16 went to BJP. Discomfiture of BJP because of Bhairon Singh Shekhawat factor not withstanding if congress manages to retain the glory of 1999 then it has every reason to be satisfied.

MADHYA PARDESH & CHHATTISGARH: Undivided MP had 40 seats. Now MP has 29 and chhattisgarh 11 seats. In 2004 congress won 4 seats from MP and 1 from Chhattisgarh wheras BJP won 21 from the former and 10 from the later. In recently held assembly elections BJP has managed to retain both the states in spite of the so called anti-incumbency. So put together it is very difficult for the congress party to secure a dozen seats from the two states.

GUJARAT: Gujarat has 26 seats. In 2004 battle was evenly placed and best suited for congress party which managed to win 12 seats and remaining 14 went to BJP. Now Chief Minister Narendra Modi has completely transformed and holds a sway on the state which was proved in last assembly elections when BJP romped home with flying colours in spite of media blitzkrieg against Modi and congress trying to spread hatred against him and roping disgruntled BJP leaders. Now it will be question of pride for Gujarat because L. K. Advani has been declared as Prime Ministerial candidate for BJP. Therefore congress will find it difficult in Gujarat and may have to be contended with just a few seats only.

GOA: The tiny state sends 2 members to Lok Sabha. Political developments in the last few years have held the democracy to ransom. Presently it is under congress rule and the party should be happy if it succeeds in splitting the seats with BJP.

 MAHARASHTRA: This is the second largest state after UP in terms of Lok Sabha seats and has 48 seats. It is different in a sense that there are four main players i.e. Congress, BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP with almost equal strength. State is under Congress+NCP rule for the last two terms whereas BJP+Shiv Sena are in opposition. Estranged nephew of Shiv Sena chief Bala Saheb Thakre has floated his own outfit called MNS. Strangely he has been in the news for beating north Indians in the name of Maharashtra pride and ruling Congress+NCP alliance had been giving him a long rope in the hope of weakening Shive Sena. Other parties like RPI, BSP, SP and left have their pockets of influence. NCP supremo Sharad Pawar is harbouring the dream of Prime Ministership & will play his cards with this in mind & invoke the issue of Maratha pride like the one was raised during Presidential election. Though there had been chinks in BJP–Shiv Sena ever since the presidential election but it seems to be certain that the two alliances will go for the election as such. In 2004 election Congress won on 13 seats, BJP on 13, Shiv Sena on 12 and NCP on 6. After the 26/11 Mumbai carnage Chief Minister Vilas Rao Deshmukh had to quit. Congress leader Shiv Raj Patil who was union Home Minister had to quit under disgraceful circumstances. State Home Minister Chhagan Bhujbal of NCP also had to quit. Congress leader Narayan Rane is sulking since then. So currently Maharashtra politics seems to be in a state of confusion but most of the dust will settle by the time of poll. BJP+SS are poised to get major share of seats with Congress+NCP combine to be on the looser side.

UTTRAKHAND: Is a hill state carved out of UP. It has 5 Lok Sabha seats and currently under BJP rule. Main opposition party is congress but SP and BSP also have their areas of influence. Major chunk of seats will go to BJP.

 UTTAR PARDESH: This is the most important state in term of Lok Sabha seats because it has 80 seats. There was time when it was said that the way to Prime Minister’s office goes from UP. But now that myth has gone and state polity is fragmented. State politics is dominated by regional satraps like former Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadv of SP and Chief Minister Maya Wati, Lok DaL of Ajit Singh has his area of influence. National Parties like Congress and BJP have been marginalized. There was a time when congress used to sweep all 85 seats of undivided UP but now it is struggling to keep its foothold in the state. The plight of Congress party can be gauged from the fact that in last assembly election it could manage a meager tally of 23 out of 403. Some Congress leaders like Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi will win because of their own image and standing. BJP came to power in the state as an aftermath to Ram Janambhoomi movement and won on major number of Lok Sabha seats. But this has also yielded most of its space to SP and BSP. Recently its former Chief Minister Kalyan Singh has jolted the party by quitting it and joining hands with SP. No doubt he will harm the BJP in a couple of seats but will be more harmful to SP. Because SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav has projected himself as a messiah of muslims and has come to be known as Mulla Mulayam. But Babri Masjid was demolished when Kalyan Singh was Chief Minister of UP and his other new found ally congress was ruling the center. So both Congress and Kalyan Singh have failed to protect Babri Masjid. Therefore Mulayam Singh and SP will be hard put to entice the muslim voter. Alliance with RLD of Ajit Singh will give some relief to BJP.
Presently state is under rule of BSP of Maya Wati. In the last assembly elections she has stunned not only political opponents but the poll pundits also by securing a clear majority. With her resounding victory BSP supremo has not emerged as a power centre only in UP but at the national scene also and she hopes to hold the card to prime ministership in post poll scenario.
BIHAR: State has 40 Lok Sabha seats and is under rule of Nitish Kumar of JD(U) in alliance with BJP. Media has been projecting him as an architect of new Bihar which was ravaged by 15 years of Lalu’s jungle raj. How far it is true is any body’s guess but he is well entrenched in Bihar and is poised to play a bigger role at national politics. In 2004 congress won only 3 seats by piggy-riding Lallu Parshad Yadav & Ram Vilas Paswan. Even in last assembly elections it managed a meager tally of 9 seats in a house of 320. Lalu is aspiring to be Prime Minister but he himself is on a sticky wicket so it is interesting to see if he can salvage the congress. Paswan has a unique knack to be in power in any combination so his real cards will open only after the elections.
JHARKHAND: State has 14 seats and is presently under President’s rule. Congress (UPA) has made a farce of democracy in this tribal state first by toppling a BJP government and then twice imposing Shibu Soren as Chief Minister ending in an embarrassment. It has achieved a distinction that its incumbent Chief Minister has lost a by election. In 2004 UPA almost swept the poll when congress bagged 6, JMM 4 seats and RJD 2 and BJP could manage only 1. No body should be surprised if UPA would reverse the results by this farcical management of the state.
ORISSA: The state has 21 seats and is presently ruled by Naveen Patnaik of BJD in alliance with BJP. In 2004 BJD won 11 seats and BJP 7 whereas 2 & 1 went to Congress & JMM each. Though the state is under BJD rule for two consecutive terms but congress has failed to nurse an alternative leadership and to prevent atrocities on minority christians even then it can hope to improve its tally a bit.
 WEST BENGAL & TRIPURA: WB has 42 seats & Tripura 2. Have remained as left bastion for quite a long time and congress has failed to break its hold. Mamta Bannerjee of Trinamool Congress has been ploughing a lonely furrow in opposition. She was routed in 2004 and got only 1 seat congress got 6 in a mysterious understanding with left. She is a fire brand leader and difficult to handle. Earlier she was with NDA but now is unattached and congress is trying to poach her. If Congress & TC alliance is formed in right spirit then they can give a run for its blood to the left in this election. If she remains with NDA then BJP can have some hope in the state. If there is no alliance in WB then left can hope to have another field day.
SIKKIM: This tiny state has only one seat and the regional outfit supports the majority party after the elections.

 KARNATKA: This is the only state across the Vindhyas where BJP has been able to establish its identity and to form a government of its own. Former Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda has some areas of influence and has his own outfit called JD(S) which won 2 seats in 2004. When BJP was trying to emerge as a force in the state even then it managed to win 18 seats in the state and now  is poised to at least retain its tally.
TAMIL NADU: The state has 39 seats. TN is dominated by regional Dravidian parties mainly DMK of Karunanidhi and AIADMK of Jayalalitha and the others are PMK and MDMK. Usually if one of the Dravidian parties aligns with congress then it gets major part of seats. In 2004 Congress got 10 seats, DMK 16, PMK 5 and MDMK 4. Left also got 4 and AIADMK drew a blank. Now the state is under DMK rule and cracks have appeared in DMK front. Sri Lankan Tamils are under attack of Lankan army and the Indian government has assumed a silent approach to the discomfiture of DMK. AIADMK has hinted to align with left but nobody can tell with certainty what will be the future course of Jayalalitha. BJP of its own does not have sufficient force to come to reckoning. If it manages to poach Jayalalitha to NDA side then the combination will emerge as a strong force otherwise seats will be split into various groups with losses to DMK and congress. If congress manages to get Jayalalitha on its side then it will be winning combination. Then BJP with its old ally DMK together can give a good fight. So it will remain uncertain till the end who is with whom.
ANDHRA PARDESH: State has 42 seats and is presently under congress rule. Main opposition regional party TDP has moved out of NDA and its leader Chanderbabu Naidu is trying to forge a third front. TRS demanding a separate Telangana state has deserted UPA and have joined hands with TDP and left. If BJP is able to bring back its past ally TDP to NDA fold along with TRS then they can make the congress to run for its blood otherwise the stage is wide open. BJP does not have sufficient force to fight of its own. If at least it is able to poach politician turned super star Chiranjeevi even then it can hope to come in the reckoning. Main fight is going to be between TDP lead front and congress. Fate of BJP will depend on the alignments.
KERALA: The state has 20 seats. State politics is divided in two fronts one is ruling CPM lead LDF and the other is congress lead UDF. One front or the other has been winning and margin of difference had always been thin. BJP does not have much to show. Congress lead UDF is all set to regain most seats from the state.

ASSAM: This largest north-eastern state has 14 seats and is presently under congress rule. Main opposition party is regional outfit AGP. This is the main state across Brahmaputra where BJP has been able to come into existence and in 2004 it managed to win 2 seats and now have entered into alliance with AGP. If all factions of AGP and BJP give a united fight then they can wrest some seats from congress.
OTHER NORTH-EASTERN STATES: The states of Meghalya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland & Arunachal Pardesh have 8 seats. In these states the fight is mainly between Congress and regional parties except Arunachal where BJP has been able to establish itself.
UNION TERRITORIES: Chandigarh, Andaman Nicobar, Lakashdweep, Dadra & Naga Haveli, Daman & Diu and Pondicherry have one seat each. Mainly it has been congress all the time but BJP with SAD emerged a force in Chandigarh, in Pondicherry dravdian parties have come to play and JDU has emerged in Lakashdweep by defeating late union minister P. M. Sayeed.

Likely party position after 2009 election: It is very difficult to hazard a guess at this stage because alliances have not been finalized especially in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pardesh which account for 123 seats. Alliance formation will have great impact on the outcome as discussed under the states. One thing is certain that BJP is going to emerge as the single largest part.

Remaining seats for independents and others. Who will be Prime Minister: It is going to be fractured mandate. I pray that President upholds the dignity of the highest office of the country and Rashtrapati Bhawan is not degraded to the level of Raj Bhawans occupied by the likes of Buta Singh. One thing is certain that with 300 seats shared by congress and BJP no government formation is possible without the involvement of either of the two. Various permutations and combinations will emerge. Some of these are likely as:

1-BJP & NDA has declared Mr. L. K. Advani as its Prime Ministerial candidate. The road for Advani is not going to be smooth. Its present pre-poll allies with about 55 seats will not be able to provide him the required numbers. It is highly unlikely that SP or BSP will come to his rescue so the road to Prime Minister’s office goes from Chanderbabu Naidu, Mamta Bannerjee and Jayalalitha. If BJP is able to bring them to NDA before election then it will not only provide numbers to Advani but bring at least 10-12 more seats to BJP. It is mandatory for BJP to win at least two of them.

2-Congress being the largest non BJP party will lay claim to the post of Prime Minister and will play the card of secularism. If its UPA partners including SP extend unconditional support to congress even then the total strength will match only BJP alone. Even if left also succumbs to the pressure of BJP coming to power then also without BSP and both Dravidian parties coming to its fold congress will not be able to provide the numbers. Congress has got the expertise to achieve tainted majorities like the ones achieved by PV Narasimha RAO and Manmohan Singh but people say ‘kaath ki haandi baar baar nahin chadhti’ (wooden pot can not cook again and again).

3- Various combinations of third front with support from Congress will come into reckoning and large number of Prime Ministerial candidates will mushroom like Maya Wati, Chanderbabu Naidu, some left leader, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Sharad Pawar, Lallu Parshad Yadav and others but Mayawati being the strongest contender. History is evident that congress has not allowed any government to last long which came to power with its support e.g. Charan Singh, Chander Shekhar, IK Gujral and HD Deve Gowda governments.
4- Some will float the idea of national government and a debate will start on that.
5-Others will try to start the debate of presidential form of government and an interim government in the meantime.

So this election is going to provide an opportunity to all kinds of thinking, lot of pre-poll discussions for alliance formation and post poll manipulations.   

Party positions are going to be somewhat like this:

BJP:                180+
Congress:       120+
Leftfront:                                                                                                                        40 +/-
BSP:                30+
TDP:               22+
SP:                  20+
JDU:               18+
AIADMK:      12
DMK:             12
Shiv Sena:      15
AITC:             10-12
BJD:               10
RJD:               8-10
NCP:               5-6
TRS:               4-5
AGP                4-5
PMK:              3-5
MDMK:         3-4
SAD:               5-6
LJP:                3-4
JMM              2-4
NC:                 2-3
RLD:              2-4
JD(S):             2-3
PDP:               1-2