Egypt and India are two growing economies of incomparable sizes but with analogous legacies. Historical timelines of both the nations are dotted with millennia of civilizations, centuries of alien dominion, trails of social inequality and political unrest. And, I have enough reasons to believe that recent anti-establishment uprising of the Egyptians has high potential to replicate itself in the Indian subcontinent.
Though the unrest on streets of Cairo has been widespread and popular, it is not bereft of political patronage from opponents of the ‘Pharaoh-incarnate’ Hosni Mubarak. It is essentially built upon constricted political space of Muslim Brotherhood. Sense of restricted democracy among people, economic extremities in society, rise in prices of essential commodities, plethora of corruption in governmental agencies are prevailing ailments urging masses to pour in.
Banned Islamist outfit Muslim Brotherhood, popularly known as Ikhwan, has its active members in the opposition bloc thus granting it a quasi-legitimate status in the politics of Egypt. Former head of International Atomic Energy Agency, a Nobel laureate and a significant face among Mubarak’s rivals Md. ElBaradei are mutually backed by Ikhwan for forthcoming 2011 presidential run. This strengthens their position and presence in the socio-political arena of Egypt.
I hardly disbelieve that the entire episode of Tahrir Square has been orchestrated by Ikhwan as an alternative challenge to counter their poor show in controversial 2010 parliamentary elections. Peoples’ anger against unemployment and mess in economy simply catalyzed it. People have reacted in split voices to this mid-world phenomenon. While positive tunes on struggle for democracy prevail, both the West and the East are suspicious of the sustenance of democracy in the hands of organizations like Ikhwan.
Thousands of miles toward east, the government of a billion people of India is also entangled in mammoth cases of corruption and financial malice. Middle-class that forms the urban majority is burdened with uncontrolled food price inflation. Around 60%, chiefly rural and semi-urban, survive on less than a dollar a day. Number of people below the threshold of poverty has increased in the last decade despite an economist head of the state.
Corruption has blotted every corner of the cabinet. Scams of around $10 bn on accounts of the nineteenth Commonwealth Games and more than $38 bn in allocation of 2G spectrum to telephony companies have corroded public trust in Manmohan Singh led government to almost extinction. Politicians and entrepreneurs from India have stashed the heftiest sum of illicit money in tax-havens of Switzerland and Lichtenstein. Almost daily reports of newer misappropriations of public funds and political nepotism are worm-eating into citizens’ patience.
Streets of New Delhi have started being crowded with regular public rallies and demonstrations by both political opponents and apolitical forums. Retired administrators, ex-ministers, key clergies and social personalities are joining such protests. Baba Ramdev, a swami and yoga guru of pan-India fame, formed an anti-corruption organization under the banner of Bharat Swabhiman Trust (India Self-respect Trust) which is likely to turn into an anti-incumbency political party in near future. Chief opposition party BJP and minor bloc of the communists are often seen on the broadways against the government. The largest students unions and the largest labor unions of the country are co-incidentally affiliated to them. And there lies the seeds of possible mass-mobilization.
Added to all these, exist severe threats to India’s integrity from both inside and outside. Insurgent groups like the extreme leftists or Maoists of north-central provinces and Islamists of Kashmir are no lesser headaches than expansionist China and untrustworthy Pakistan outside. They will extract gains as much as possible if citizen’s grief is vented out through path of revolution.
India has every fuel of an Egypt-like uprising present in it. It is the inherent love for peace and faith in democratic system which is dampening repeated sparks to conflagrate a wildfire. Though this is our relief from the fear of the largest democracy getting derailed, there is no scarcity of reasons to worry. The combined size of political, semi-political and apolitical opposition in India is much larger than that of Ikhwan in Egypt. Cases of impropriety are heaping up against the government on a daily basis and democratic government must resort to corrective actions instead of hooking up to the throne; better late than never. It might not last its full term in spite of a majority in parliament. A reflection of Egypt is clearly visible in India. We can only pray for the transition in constitutional and not primordial way.
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This article has been published before by the Morung Express, India
(Ajoy is a freelance writer and an independent South Asia observer)