By Saeed Minhas
Islamabad—Supreme Court of Pakistan’s verdict to disqualify chief of Pakistan Muslim League (N) Nawaz Sharif from electoral contests and to dethrone and disqualify chief minister Punjab Shahbaz Sharif from election process has raised the question that will country plunge into a fresh political war between the two old adversaries PML (N) and Pakistan Peoples Party, as Nawaz Sharif announced a direct confrontation with Zardari in particular and PPP in general.
Both the parties had come closer in confronting Gen. Musharraf after signing a charter of democracy in 2004 and remained in good touch till mid 2008 when Nawaz Sharif withdrew his members from the federal cabinet alleging Asif Zardari of not honoring his promises of restoration of deposed judges and putting ousted President Musharraf to trial.
Now the main question is will Mian Nawaz Sharif be able to stir up a countrywide or at-least his home province Punjab-wide political upheaval to bring a change in the political set up of the country? Especially when the dice seems heavily loaded against him and he is neither on good terms with his former masters in establishment or khakis, nor he is acceptable to foreign forces for having a clear tilt towards right-wing forces of the country.
After being pushed against the wall, options for Nawaz Sharif to launch a full assault on Asif Zardari and play up the differences between the presidency and prime minister are unlimited but so are the options for the President Asif Zardari led Pakistan Peoples Party which is controlling federal government and other three provinces of the country and is all set to take over the political citadel of the country; i.e Punjab province.
Leaders of the lawyers’ movement and his former estranged political allies of All Pakistan Democratic Movement (APDM) mainly Jamaat-e-Islami and Tehrik-e-Insaaf would be looking forward to rally around Nawaz Sharif and vent their own grievances against Peoples Party. But unlike what is shown on many television channels, the protests seen so far are confined to urban areas of Punjab while rest of the country seems quite disillusioned by the SC decision against Sharifs. A fact that stands endorsed by the 2008 general elections which shows that Sharifs failed to gain any political mileage from any other province but Punjab.
The first burst from Sharifs has understandably come against Asif Zardari alleging him for making a business deal with them by endorsing the current judiciary in lieu of the ending the disqualification case against them. But what seems quite naïve on part of Sharifs is that the verdict was anything but writing on the wall and Peoples Party was preparing to control its after effects for the last couple of months or at least since the start of day-to-day hearing of the disqualification case by Supreme Court about two months ago.
The congregation and shielding of local bodies nazims of 26 out of 35 districts of Punjab at Governor House to strip the Sharifs of rural populace support, luring of Pakistan Muslim League (Q) in Punjab, alignment with MQM in Sindh and sorting out differences with the JUI by giving them more than their due share in federal cabinet, sorting out things with ANP in NWFP, playing good-lads with the khakis and foreign powers (read US) are the things which Peoples Party or for that matter Asif Zardari was doing throughout the same period while Sharifs were hoping against the hope that something will happen for them.
The administrative actions such as imposition of Governor rule in Punjab, replacement of chief secretary of Punjab, directing the police to control the law and order, etc; soon after the SC verdict by Peoples Party are yet another sign that they had everything worked out for this pen-ultimate decision.
Whereas, Sharifs were being lulled by the prime minister and president who both were seemingly playing good-cop-bad-cop with the leaders of second largest political party of the country.
Now what is left for Sharifs? Soon-after the Supreme Court verdict supporters of PML (N) surrounded Governor House in Lahore, as Governor Punjab immediately took over the role of chief executive of the province as per the constitutional provision. Protests also erupted in other major cities of Punjab while rest of the country is looking towards Punjab for any possible change in the political setup of the country. Pakistan Muslim League (N) is considered an urban-based party and seems to have lost a considerable leeway not only in the rural areas but in other three provinces due to eight years absence of Mian brothers after making a deal with the military ruler Gen. (R) Musharraf in 1999 and then by brushing aside the local bodies nazims to replace them with the old commissioner system.
Nevertheless, one cannot totally rule out Nawaz Sharif as a political leader. Despite making many judgmental errors ever-since returning to the country, Mian Nawaz Sharif has to show his leadership credentials to stand any chance for future set up. Many in establishment believe that if Sharifs showed solidarity within them and stood together at these testing times, they might be able to go out and give a categorical call to the people of Punjab and of other provinces. Many others believe that both Sharifs have different views because in the past Shahbaz Sharif fled the country on health pretext when thrust into opposition against Mian Manzoor Wattoo in Punjab and Mian Nawaz Sharif chose to go into political hibernation when thrown out of power by khakis in 1999. Now this is the time for the Sharifs to show their mettle or get ready for political oblivion.
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