Serbia faces a bruising battle this morning over how to react to the looming secession of its southern province of Kosovo after President Boris Tadic, a pro-western liberal, won a renewed five-year term in a close election last night.
Tadic’s narrow victory, by a projected 2.6 percentage points or 100,000 votes, over the extreme nationalist Tomislav Nikolic puts him a strong position to push for an alliance with the European Union despite the EU’s support for Kosovo independence.
But this policy will set the re-elected president on a collision course with the more powerful prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, who is threatening to sever relations with much of the EU when Brussels deploys an 1,800-strong nation-building mission in an independent Kosovo. The Tadic-Kostunica fight is turning into a proxy showdown between Russia and the west – with the Kremlin aiding the prime minister, and the EU and the US shoring up the president.
According to reliable projections last night, Tadic, defeated by Nikolic in the first round a fortnight ago, took 50.5% of the vote to Nikolic’s 47.9%, as Serbs turned out in droves for the most important and most heavily attended ballot since the late Slobodan Milosevic was overthrown in 2000.
"Serbia has shown its great democratic potential," Tadic said in his victory speech in front of thousands of cheering supporters. He praised Nikolic for "the number of votes he has won". Nikolic said: "I congratulate him [Tadic] on his victory … I will continue to be his tough opposition."
The Tadic triumph will determine the precise date of the secession declaration by Kosovo’s Albanian leadership. How Belgrade reacts to the loss of 15% of its territory now hinges on the struggle between Tadic and Kostunica.
Yesterday’s contest was presented as a battle between the past and the future, and between east and west. Brussels feared that Nikolic might win, and made last-minute offers to Belgrade to try to swing the vote. And the EU rushed to congratulate Tadic last night.
The 67% turnout confirmed the high stakes and helped Tadic. But, with Serbia’s biggest ballot in years out of the way and Tadic’s victory secured, the focus now turns to Kosovo where key decisions have been delayed pending last night’s outcome.
The Kosovo independence declaration is expected within a couple of weeks. The new state will be recognized by the US and a large majority of the EU’s 27 states, including all the biggest countries, with the possible exception of Spain.
Both Tadic and Kostunica strongly oppose Kosovo’s separation, but differ fundamentally on how to respond. Kostunica refused to endorse Tadic in the election because of the latter’s position on the EU and Kosovo.
Kostunica will call the shots on how Serbia responds to the loss of Kosovo and to the overtures from Brussels. Tadic is weaker, but can claim a clearer and stronger mandate than the prime minister after winning his election with an uncompromising pro-European message.
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